← UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2
Jiri Prochazka vs Khalil Rountree Jr.
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10-04
63.3%
Model
61.3%
Market
1.57
Odds
+2.0
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P76
Striking Initiative
P57
P69
Volume
P82
P95
Striking Efficiency
P56
P95
Range Sniper
P91
P62
Kickboxing
P91
P41
Clinch Striking
P6
P2
Defensive Striking
P35
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P37
Wrestling
P0
P18
Pressure Wrestling
P1
P43
Top Control
P2
P44
Submission
P1
P96
Anti-Wrestling
P32
P70
Grappling Defense
P33
P70
Scrambler
P1
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P94
Power
P88
P97
Finisher
P47
P27
Damage Resistance
P59
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P17
Fast Starter
P27
P35
Pace
P5
P73
Late Fighter
P77
GLOBAL
P53
Versatility
P1
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
ProchazkaJr.
5.74Landed / min3.82
5.70Absorbed / min4.15
56%Accuracy42%
43%Defense50%
0.79KD / 151.43
0.60KD abs / 150.20
Grappling / Wrestling
ProchazkaJr.
0.60TD / 150.00
0.99TD att / 150.00
60%TD accuracy—
68%TD defense61%
2:12Control / 150:19
0.20Sub att / 150.00
Targets
ProchazkaJr.
Head80%|52%
Body15%|25%
Leg5%|23%
Position
ProchazkaJr.
Distance76%|91%
Clinch7%|4%
Ground18%|5%
Ranking evolution Prochazka Jr.
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Jiri Prochazka
Jiri Prochazka brings genuine fight-ending power and a knack for closing before the scorecards, backed by a 31-5 mark and a recent win over the No. 4-ranked opponent. He owns a 10cm reach advantage, works at a high output, and carries submission threat if the fight hits the mat.
Khalil Rountree Jr.
Khalil Rountree Jr. has won four of his last five UFC fights, most recently beating the No. 6-ranked opponent. His stand-up defense and distance management are sharp, his chin has held up under fire, and his top control has been trending upward lately.
Matchup Read
Prochazka's volume and finishing power meet Rountree's defensive footwork and durability on the feet. With a 10cm reach edge and southpaw-orthodox angles in play, the standing exchanges hinge on whether Prochazka's pressure overwhelms Rountree's distance work, or whether Rountree's chin lets him weather the early storm and answer. On the mat, Prochazka's submission threat clashes with Rountree's rising control game, making scrambles a live phase.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Prochazka's forward pressure and reach crowd Rountree, or Rountree's footwork keeps him countering from range.
- Durability check: how Rountree's chin holds up against Prochazka's power in the opening exchanges.
- Grappling: if it hits the mat, watch Rountree's top control against Prochazka's submission attempts off his back.