Betting strategy
- We bet on fighters with edge > 0% and win probability above the threshold set below
- Stake is 10% of bankroll per bet, capped at the max bet cap set below
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Walk-forward backtest: retrained monthly, predicting the following month iteratively. Train 2012–2021, Test 2022-01 → Train 2012–2022-01, Test 2022-02 → ... (expanding window, one month at a time).
Bankroll Record
Monthly Performance
Model probabilities are evaluated against Pinnacle's margin-adjusted closing probabilities (The Odds API).
Model Calibration
Upcoming Event
Past Events