← UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
Movsar Evloev vs Alexander Volkanovski
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · 2026-10-24
60.2%
Model
51.3%
Market
1.88
Odds
+8.9
Edge (pp)
established · 10 UFC fightsestablished · 10 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P83
Striking Initiative
P94
P56
Volume
P79
P60
Striking Efficiency
P90
P20
Range Sniper
P71
P42
Kickboxing
P76
P29
Clinch Striking
P30
P78
Defensive Striking
P71
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P99
Wrestling
P58
P86
Pressure Wrestling
P55
P90
Top Control
P72
P31
Submission
P25
P76
Anti-Wrestling
P97
P54
Grappling Defense
P90
P59
Scrambler
P57
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P7
Power
P66
P0
Finisher
P20
P95
Damage Resistance
P67
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P74
Fast Starter
P67
P96
Pace
P90
P94
Late Fighter
P88
GLOBAL
P97
Versatility
P99
Current fighter profiles · percentiles vs current established UFC fighters (8+ fights).
Striking
EvloevVolkanovski
3.91Landed / min5.99
2.80Absorbed / min3.31
48%Accuracy57%
61%Defense59%
0.00KD / 150.30
0.00KD abs / 150.20
Grappling / Wrestling
EvloevVolkanovski
4.78TD / 151.63
9.09TD att / 154.80
53%TD accuracy34%
61%TD defense69%
5:21Control / 152:58
0.19Sub att / 150.20
Targets
EvloevVolkanovski
Head77%|65%
Body15%|10%
Leg8%|25%
Position
EvloevVolkanovski
Distance75%|76%
Clinch8%|8%
Ground17%|15%
Ranking evolution Evloev Volkanovski
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Movsar Evloev
Evloev comes in unbeaten at 20-0 overall and 10-0 in the UFC, riding a 20-fight win streak with his last win over the No. 7-ranked opponent. His edge lives in the grappling: a strong push to get the fight down, control from top, and a gas tank that holds up deep. His mat work has been trending upward.
Alexander Volkanovski
Volkanovski owns a 28-4 record and a deep résumé, most recently beating the No. 3-ranked opponent while his last loss came to the No. 4-ranked fighter. His game leans on striking volume and sustained pressure, with the better knack for closing the show before the scorecards. His defensive work has been sharpening.
Matchup Read
Evloev's drive to put the fight on the mat meets Volkanovski's striking pressure, and that collision defines it. If Evloev lands his takedowns and leans on his top control, he drags the fight into his best phase and blunts the standup. If Volkanovski keeps it upright with his volume, he banks rounds and his finishing threat grows. Cardio leans Evloev's way late, while Volkanovski carries the sharper path to a stoppage.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Evloev's level changes land clean or Volkanovski keeps the fight standing and forces striking exchanges.
- Early striking: how much volume Volkanovski puts on before any level change, and whether he threatens the finish.
- Late rounds: whether Evloev's deeper gas tank starts showing as the fight stretches out.