← UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
Movsar Evloev vs Lerone Murphy
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03-21
53.0%
Model
69.9%
Market
1.38
Odds
-16.8
Edge (pp)
established · 9 UFC fightsestablished · 9 fights
Style Matchup
established · 9 UFC fightsestablished · 9 fights
STRIKING
P79
Striking Initiative
P91
P49
Volume
P77
P53
Striking Efficiency
P94
P13
Range Sniper
P74
P31
Kickboxing
P85
P52
Clinch Striking
P72
P77
Defensive Striking
P92
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P98
Wrestling
P65
P88
Pressure Wrestling
P64
P92
Top Control
P50
P35
Submission
P15
P71
Anti-Wrestling
P15
P47
Grappling Defense
P26
P66
Scrambler
P20
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P5
Power
P75
P1
Finisher
P19
P89
Damage Resistance
P76
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P87
Fast Starter
P13
P97
Pace
P68
P94
Late Fighter
P96
GLOBAL
P95
Versatility
P91
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
EvloevMurphy
3.99Landed / min4.80
2.66Absorbed / min2.64
48%Accuracy55%
61%Defense62%
0.00KD / 150.37
0.00KD abs / 150.12
Grappling / Wrestling
EvloevMurphy
4.67TD / 151.59
9.67TD att / 152.93
48%TD accuracy54%
61%TD defense56%
5:55Control / 152:34
0.22Sub att / 150.37
Targets
EvloevMurphy
Head80%|66%
Body11%|19%
Leg9%|14%
Position
EvloevMurphy
Distance72%|79%
Clinch9%|11%
Ground19%|10%
Ranking evolution Evloev Murphy
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Movsar Evloev
Evloev brings a perfect 19-0 run, 9-0 in the UFC, built on a strong top game and the ability to control opponents once the fight hits the mat. His most recent win came over the No. 3-ranked opponent, and he has repeatedly delivered against elite competition.
Lerone Murphy
Murphy is also unbeaten at 17-0, 9-0 in the UFC, riding real finishing momentum with recent knockout power behind it. His striking volume has been trending upward, his ground control is improving, and his form has shown no recent dip. He stands 5 cm taller.
Matchup Read
Evloev owns the tested résumé against top-15 names, but Murphy carries the sharper matchup-specific tools standing, where his rising volume and recent power make the exchanges dangerous. Evloev's route runs through his top control, grounding Murphy and keeping him off his feet. Murphy's own ground work is improving, so if Evloev secures position he still needs to hold it. The height difference gives Murphy a touch more room to operate at range.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Murphy can use his reach and output to keep it standing and land with power.
- Grappling: how quickly Evloev changes levels, and whether his top control pins Murphy or Murphy works back up.
- Late rounds: which man dictates where the fight lives as the pace stretches out.
Key Uncertainty
Evloev returns after 15.4 months out, a longer-than-usual gap that leaves some question over how sharp he looks against a dangerous, active opponent.