FIGHTintelligence
UFC predictions & fighter analytics
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Track record

Performance & Past Events

Walk-forward results, bankroll evolution and the complete history of previous UFC events and model predictions.

Track Record
+15.03%
ROI i
Return on Investment
  • Total profit divided by total amount staked, over the bets and date range currently selected.
+174.1u
Net Profit i
Net Profit
  • Total profit or loss in units over the selected bets and date range, using the staking rule set in the Strategy Backtest.
−15.4u
Max Drawdown i
Max Drawdown
  • The largest peak-to-trough decline in the resimulated bankroll over this window, in units.
65.2%
Accuracy i
Accuracy
  • Measured only on the bets that were actually placed (betting rule met and model probability at or above the threshold), not on every prediction the model made.
0.207
Brier Score i
Brier Score
  • Lower is better. Measures how well-calibrated the model probabilities are.
  • Computed on the bets that were actually placed, not on every prediction the model made.
✓ Better than market
1066
Bets Placed i
Bets Placed
  • Number of individual bets that passed the selection rule (betting rule met and model probability at or above the threshold) within the selected date range.
Monthly expanding-window backtest. The model is retrained each month using only information available before the prediction period.i
Walk-forward schedule
  • Train: 2012–2021 → Test: January 2022
  • Train: 2012–January 2022 → Test: February 2022
  • ...and so on, expanding the training window by one month each time
i
Opening vs closing odds
  • Opening: bets are selected and settled at Pinnacle's opening price.
  • Closing: bets are selected and settled at Pinnacle's closing price, the sharpest benchmark available.
  • The selected bets can differ between the two, since the edge is computed against the chosen price.
i
Staking
  • Starting bankroll: 10 units.
  • Compound: 10% of the current bankroll per bet (min 0.5u, max 5u), scaled by the confidence tier.
  • Flat: 1 unit per bet, scaled by the confidence tier.
i
Minimum model probability
  • The official strategy uses a 50% floor. Higher values simulate stricter selection criteria. See the About page for the full rule and why "model-favored" isn't the same as "market favorite".
≥%
✓50%
✓55%
✓60%
✓65%
✓70%
✓75%
✓80%
✓85%
✓90%
→

Bankroll Evolution

Opening oddsClosing oddsStart (10u)
Calibration is measured across all out-of-sample fight predictions, independent of the Strategy Backtest's probability threshold and date range.
Market probabilities are Pinnacle's margin-adjusted opening or closing probabilities (The Odds API), following the odds selected in the Strategy Backtest. The calibration chart uses closing probabilities.
Past Events206 events
Winning bet Losing bet No bet · win No bet · loss
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
2026-10-17
+70.00%
ROI
+3.5u
Gain
80.0%
Accuracy
9
Fights
▼
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan
2026-10-10
-24.31%
ROI
−1.6u
Gain
33.3%
Accuracy
9
Fights
▼
UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang
2026-10-03
-38.41%
ROI
−1.6u
Gain
60.0%
Accuracy
13
Fights
▼
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
2026-09-26
+103.50%
ROI
+2.1u
Gain
100.0%
Accuracy
8
Fights
▼
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
2026-09-19
+23.09%
ROI
+1.3u
Gain
60.0%
Accuracy
11
Fights
▼
Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado
2026-09-12
-9.31%
ROI
−0.6u
Gain
66.7%
Accuracy
10
Fights
▼
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
2026-09-05
-13.40%
ROI
−0.5u
Gain
66.7%
Accuracy
11
Fights
▼
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
2026-08-29
-30.85%
ROI
−1.5u
Gain
50.0%
Accuracy
8
Fights
▼
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
2026-08-22
+36.20%
ROI
+2.3u
Gain
66.7%
Accuracy
10
Fights
▼
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
2026-08-15
-34.13%
ROI
−2.6u
Gain
42.9%
Accuracy
10
Fights
▼
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld
2026-08-08
+56.23%
ROI
+3.1u
Gain
100.0%
Accuracy
8
Fights
▼
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez
2026-08-01
+9.20%
ROI
+0.3u
Gain
66.7%
Accuracy
9
Fights
▼
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
2026-07-25
-0.77%
ROI
−0.0u
Gain
66.7%
Accuracy
11
Fights
▼
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
2026-07-18
-8.71%
ROI
−0.5u
Gain
66.7%
Accuracy
8
Fights
▼
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
2026-07-11
+5.48%
ROI
+0.4u
Gain
66.7%
Accuracy
13
Fights
▼
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres
2026-06-27
-7.04%
ROI
−0.4u
Gain
50.0%
Accuracy
12
Fights
▼
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi
2026-06-20
+4.50%
ROI
+0.1u
Gain
66.7%
Accuracy
8
Fights
▼
UFC Freedom 250
2026-06-14
-4.50%
ROI
−0.1u
Gain
66.7%
Accuracy
7
Fights
▼
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
2026-06-06
-10.61%
ROI
−0.6u
Gain
50.0%
Accuracy
9
Fights
▼
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo
2026-05-30
+43.67%
ROI
+1.0u
Gain
100.0%
Accuracy
7
Fights
▼