Winning bet Losing bet No bet · win No bet · loss
2026-08-08
+56.23%
ROI
+3.1u
Gain
100.0%
Accuracy
8
Fights
▼
limited sample · 5 UFC fightslimited · 5 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P82
Striking Initiative
P31
P57
Volume
P17
P88
Striking Efficiency
P62
P72
Range Sniper
P23
P67
Kickboxing
P45
P67
Clinch Striking
P30
P32
Defensive Striking
P71
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P89
Wrestling
P96
P100
Pressure Wrestling
P97
P79
Top Control
P90
P60
Submission
P57
P10
Anti-Wrestling
P50
P52
Grappling Defense
P80
P33
Scrambler
P28
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P95
Power
P30
P61
Finisher
P20
P59
Damage Resistance
P37
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P95
Fast Starter
P94
P99
Pace
P80
P36
Late Fighter
P92
GLOBAL
P83
Versatility
P98
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
SalkilldGamrot
4.77Landed / min3.21
2.26Absorbed / min2.81
60%Accuracy52%
48%Defense60%
1.85KD / 150.10
0.00KD abs / 150.48
Grappling / Wrestling
SalkilldGamrot
6.16TD / 155.22
19.73TD att / 1513.54
31%TD accuracy39%
75%TD defense83%
5:17Control / 154:51
0.62Sub att / 150.19
Targets
SalkilldGamrot
Head64%|77%
Body24%|14%
Leg12%|10%
Position
SalkilldGamrot
Distance69%|75%
Clinch16%|6%
Ground15%|18%
Ranking evolution Salkilld Gamrot
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Quillan Salkilld
Salkilld rides a 12-fight win streak and a perfect 5-0 UFC run, most recently beating a No. 11-ranked opponent. He pairs real takedown ability with recent knockout power and a deep gas tank built to hold pace late. At lightweight he carries a sizable frame, with 13 cm of reach to work behind, and adds steady volume and pressure on the feet.
Mateusz Gamrot
Gamrot owns the far deeper résumé at 26-4 overall and 9-4 in the UFC, though he's gone 3 for his last 5 and dropped his most recent loss to the No. 4-ranked opponent. A southpaw, he comes in on a one-fight win streak over lower-ranked opposition.
Matchup Read
Early, Salkilld's power and forward volume carry the finishing danger, with the long reach and orthodox-versus-southpaw angles shaping the range he fights at. The deeper this goes across five rounds, the more his cardio and ability to hold pace late become decisive. Both can push for takedowns, so mat exchanges may cancel out, placing the decision on who dictates distance and whether Salkilld's output drags Gamrot into the championship rounds on his terms.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Salkilld uses his reach and pressure to land power behind the southpaw-orthodox angle before Gamrot settles in.
- Grappling: who initiates the takedowns and whether either man can establish sustained top position rather than trading scrambles.
- Championship rounds: whether Salkilld's pace holds into rounds four and five or Gamrot's experience lets him grind back late.
established · 17 UFC fightsestablished · 17 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P85
Striking Initiative
P93
P92
Volume
P83
P25
Striking Efficiency
P85
P40
Range Sniper
P60
P23
Kickboxing
P51
P15
Clinch Striking
P90
P66
Defensive Striking
P1
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P24
Wrestling
P56
P24
Pressure Wrestling
P84
P22
Top Control
P61
P68
Submission
P61
P59
Anti-Wrestling
P20
P17
Grappling Defense
P27
P70
Scrambler
P63
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P29
Power
P42
P36
Finisher
P53
P25
Damage Resistance
P53
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P16
Fast Starter
P29
P72
Pace
P96
P78
Late Fighter
P16
GLOBAL
P20
Versatility
P45
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
FerreiraQuarantillo
4.70Landed / min7.04
3.46Absorbed / min5.87
40%Accuracy52%
56%Defense43%
0.27KD / 150.24
0.36KD abs / 150.37
Grappling / Wrestling
FerreiraQuarantillo
0.82TD / 151.59
2.73TD att / 156.24
30%TD accuracy25%
58%TD defense61%
1:46Control / 154:03
0.55Sub att / 151.10
Targets
FerreiraQuarantillo
Head71%|69%
Body22%|23%
Leg8%|8%
Position
FerreiraQuarantillo
Distance78%|66%
Clinch6%|17%
Ground16%|16%
Ranking evolution Ferreira Quarantillo
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Diego Ferreira
Diego Ferreira brings the physical frame to this one, with a 10 cm reach advantage and a gas tank that holds up deep into fights. His distance management and stand-up defense are reliable, and he's shown he can absorb punishment without folding. His last win came over the No. 28-ranked opponent.
Billy Quarantillo
Billy Quarantillo leans on output and forward pressure in the striking exchanges, and his grappling gives him routes to drag the fight down and work from top position. He's gone 2 of his last 5 in the UFC and last beat the No. 32-ranked opponent.
Matchup Read
Both men have split their recent five, so the read leans on tools. Quarantillo's pressure and takeover attempts run into Ferreira's length, striking defense and cardio. If Quarantillo closes the reach gap and gets it to the mat, his top control becomes the story. If Ferreira keeps it at range and drags it into the later minutes, his tank and frame start to matter more across three rounds.
What to Watch
- Range battle: whether Ferreira can use his 10 cm reach to keep Quarantillo from closing and pressuring inside.
- Grappling: how often Quarantillo gets level changes to land and whether he can hold top position once there.
- Late rounds: whether the pace holds up for Quarantillo deep into round three against Ferreira's cardio.
Key Uncertainty
Quarantillo comes in after nearly 20 months out, a long enough absence to note as a real question mark over how sharp his timing and pace look early.
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
Style Matchup
established · 30 UFC fightsestablished · 30 fights
STRIKING
P27
Striking Initiative
P59
P7
Volume
P41
P2
Striking Efficiency
P3
P0
Range Sniper
P4
P10
Kickboxing
P2
P47
Clinch Striking
P78
P62
Defensive Striking
P17
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P44
Wrestling
P85
P15
Pressure Wrestling
P86
P56
Top Control
P86
P84
Submission
P66
P1
Anti-Wrestling
P76
P9
Grappling Defense
P33
P33
Scrambler
P87
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P6
Power
P16
P38
Finisher
P10
P46
Damage Resistance
P49
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P70
Fast Starter
P86
P19
Pace
P96
P36
Late Fighter
P83
GLOBAL
P11
Versatility
P10
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
ValleElkins
1.07Landed / min3.40
0.93Absorbed / min3.34
42%Accuracy38%
64%Defense51%
0.00KD / 150.09
0.00KD abs / 150.26
Grappling / Wrestling
ValleElkins
0.69TD / 152.87
0.69TD att / 158.43
100%TD accuracy34%
56%TD defense56%
4:34Control / 155:31
2.78Sub att / 151.07
Targets
ValleElkins
Head35%|76%
Body39%|20%
Leg26%|4%
Position
ValleElkins
Distance61%|58%
Clinch4%|20%
Ground35%|22%
Ranking evolution Valle Elkins
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Yadier del Valle
Yadier del Valle carries recent finishing momentum and a live submission threat into this one, backed by a deep gas tank that lets him hold pace late. His stand-up defense and distance management have been tightening, and his 10-1 overall mark includes a 2-1 UFC run.
Darren Elkins
Darren Elkins brings a long résumé at 29-12 overall and 19-11 in the UFC, with volume and forward pressure on the feet his most reliable tool here. He holds a 5 cm reach edge and has taken 3 of his last 5 inside the Octagon.
Matchup Read
The early rounds bring Elkins's pressure and output against del Valle's sharper distance work and the 5 cm reach he has to close. As the fight stretches across three rounds, the balance tilts toward del Valle's cardio and ability to hold pace late. If exchanges hit the mat, his submission threat becomes the central danger. Elkins's path runs through keeping volume high before del Valle's late-round gas tank takes over.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Elkins can walk del Valle down behind volume, or del Valle keeps him at range with the reach gap neutralized.
- Grappling: any ground exchange raises del Valle's submission threat, so watch how Elkins responds when it goes to the mat.
- Late rounds: whether del Valle's pace holds in round three while Elkins's early output fades.
Key Uncertainty
Elkins enters on a 15.9-month layoff, which makes his current form and sharpness harder to read heading into this one.
Style Matchup
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
STRIKING
P100
Striking Initiative
P96
P99
Volume
P92
P95
Striking Efficiency
P69
P97
Range Sniper
P77
P82
Kickboxing
P88
P38
Clinch Striking
P35
P39
Defensive Striking
P69
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P29
Wrestling
P37
P0
Pressure Wrestling
P87
P39
Top Control
P75
P74
Submission
P3
P39
Anti-Wrestling
P37
P51
Grappling Defense
P30
P35
Scrambler
P31
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P62
Power
P87
P54
Finisher
P62
P42
Damage Resistance
P61
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P36
Fast Starter
P48
P35
Pace
P97
—
Late Fighter
P36
GLOBAL
P50
Versatility
P53
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
MillerGoff
11.84Landed / min7.11
7.22Absorbed / min5.16
49%Accuracy47%
51%Defense59%
3.01KD / 150.68
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
MillerGoff
0.00TD / 150.68
0.00TD att / 159.51
—TD accuracy7%
100%TD defense50%
0:09Control / 153:31
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
MillerGoff
Head93%|49%
Body7%|20%
Leg0%|31%
Position
MillerGoff
Distance93%|92%
Clinch5%|7%
Ground2%|1%
Ranking evolution Miller Goff
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Ty Miller
Ty Miller rides a seven-fight win streak into this bout, 28-13 overall and a winner in his UFC debut. He brings pressure and output on the feet, with that volume trending upward recently. His grappling plays both ways: strong takedown defense to keep it standing, plus a real finishing threat once the fight hits the mat. A 13cm reach advantage and taller frame give him room to operate.
Billy Ray Goff
Billy Ray Goff is 9-4 across all organizations and 1-2 in the UFC, with one win in his last 3 trips to the Octagon. A switch-stance fighter, he's been out for over 14 months since his last appearance, the longest of his recent layoffs.
Matchup Read
Early, Miller's pressure and rising output test whether Goff can hold ground against the 13cm reach deficit and steady forward volume. As the fight wears on, Miller's grappling becomes the larger concern: his takedown defense lets him keep exchanges where he wants, and if it does reach the mat, his finishing threat on top is the central danger. Goff needs to close the gap and keep this out of grinding ground positions to stay in it over three rounds.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Goff can get inside the longer reach or eats volume walking in across the first round.
- Grappling: if it hits the mat, watch whether Goff can scramble free before Miller settles into a finishing position.
- Late rounds: whether Goff's pace holds across three rounds after a 14-month layoff.
Key Uncertainty
Reading this is complicated by Miller having just one UFC fight on record and Goff returning from more than 14 months out, leaving both fighters' current form against this level hard to pin down.
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P100
Striking Initiative
P14
P100
Volume
P25
P100
Striking Efficiency
P100
P97
Range Sniper
P93
P97
Kickboxing
P98
P7
Clinch Striking
P72
P34
Defensive Striking
P56
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P22
Wrestling
P22
P0
Pressure Wrestling
P5
P1
Top Control
P3
P1
Submission
P0
P54
Anti-Wrestling
P0
P75
Grappling Defense
P59
P31
Scrambler
P31
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P84
Power
P30
P77
Finisher
P39
P61
Damage Resistance
P36
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P51
Fast Starter
P7
P32
Pace
P0
P8
Late Fighter
P19
GLOBAL
P28
Versatility
P36
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
AsplundPat
9.70Landed / min2.70
6.63Absorbed / min2.03
51%Accuracy62%
50%Defense52%
0.63KD / 150.00
0.00KD abs / 150.50
Grappling / Wrestling
AsplundPat
0.00TD / 150.00
0.00TD att / 150.00
—TD accuracy—
100%TD defense100%
0:09Control / 150:22
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
AsplundPat
Head87%|77%
Body4%|14%
Leg8%|10%
Position
AsplundPat
Distance97%|86%
Clinch2%|14%
Ground1%|0%
Ranking evolution Asplund Pat
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Steven Asplund
Steven Asplund brings the busier, more forward striking game, working at a higher output and carrying recent knockout power with finishing form to match. His stand-up defense and ability to eat a shot both lean slightly in his favor, rounding out a stylistically aggressive heavyweight at 7-2 overall.
Guilherme Pat
Guilherme Pat owns the longer frame in this pairing, roughly 8 cm of reach on Asplund, and his striking volume has been climbing of late. At 6-1 across all organizations, he can use that length to fight from the outside.
Matchup Read
The striking is where this gets decided, and it pulls in two directions. Asplund's pressure and power push him to close distance and make it a phone-booth fight, where his finishing threat lives. Pat's 8 cm of reach rewards the opposite plan, keeping range and firing as Asplund steps in. Whoever dictates distance controls the exchanges: Asplund inside with his heavier hands, or Pat landing first from the end of his length.
What to Watch
- Distance battle: whether Asplund can close the 8 cm reach gap or Pat keeps him at the end of his jab
- Early striking: who lands the cleaner shots first, Asplund's power inside or Pat's volume from range
- Durability: how Pat holds up if Asplund connects clean given Asplund's recent finishing form
Key Uncertainty
Both men carry only two UFC fights apiece, so there's a thin top-level record to judge how either holds up once this steps above modest regional opposition.
Style Matchup
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
STRIKING
P87
Striking Initiative
P3
P80
Volume
P3
P98
Striking Efficiency
P7
P66
Range Sniper
P7
P100
Kickboxing
P4
P30
Clinch Striking
P95
P77
Defensive Striking
P13
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P61
Wrestling
P73
P47
Pressure Wrestling
P100
P28
Top Control
P95
P15
Submission
P38
P79
Anti-Wrestling
P53
P58
Grappling Defense
P82
P56
Scrambler
P33
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P23
Power
P11
P43
Finisher
P49
P29
Damage Resistance
P17
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P9
Fast Starter
P16
P40
Pace
P59
P46
Late Fighter
P41
GLOBAL
P75
Versatility
P24
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
NurgozhayLopes
4.87Landed / min2.47
2.85Absorbed / min4.28
61%Accuracy45%
59%Defense48%
0.00KD / 150.00
1.24KD abs / 151.16
Grappling / Wrestling
NurgozhayLopes
1.86TD / 152.89
2.48TD att / 1512.73
75%TD accuracy23%
78%TD defense100%
1:36Control / 155:58
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
NurgozhayLopes
Head33%|58%
Body40%|27%
Leg27%|16%
Position
NurgozhayLopes
Distance88%|52%
Clinch5%|44%
Ground7%|5%
Ranking evolution Nurgozhay Lopes
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Diyar Nurgozhay
Nurgozhay works behind sharp distance management and solid stand-up defense, backed by durability and the volume to press forward in striking exchanges. His 11-2 all-organizations mark includes a recent win, and he hasn't been finished in his recent outings, pointing to a reliable chin.
Bruno Lopes
Lopes brings the stronger grappling, with meaningful control once he gets on top and the ability to drag the fight to the mat. He carries a 14-3 record across all organizations, his lone UFC loss coming against the No. 37-ranked opponent.
Matchup Read
Lopes's push to get the fight down meets Nurgozhay's edge on the feet. Standing, Nurgozhay owns the range, output and the durability to weather exchanges, so Lopes's path runs through level changes and top control. If he lands those takedowns, his control game takes over; if Nurgozhay keeps it upright across three rounds, his volume and distance work dictate the pace. The southpaw-orthodox angles shape the striking entries.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Lopes can close distance and convert entries into sustained top control, or Nurgozhay keeps scrambling back up.
- Striking: how well Nurgozhay uses range and the stance mismatch to stack output and keep Lopes at the end of his punches.
- Late rounds: whether Nurgozhay's durability lets him absorb Lopes's pressure and push his own pace into round three.
Style Matchup
No UFC data yet
UFC debut · style profile after first fight
STRIKING
P81
Striking Initiative
P91
Volume
P53
Striking Efficiency
P94
Range Sniper
P77
Kickboxing
P49
Clinch Striking
P37
Defensive Striking
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P23
Wrestling
P15
Pressure Wrestling
P7
Top Control
P38
Submission
P12
Anti-Wrestling
P20
Grappling Defense
P33
Scrambler
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P100
Power
P68
Finisher
P48
Damage Resistance
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P42
Fast Starter
P45
Pace
P71
Late Fighter
GLOBAL
P20
Versatility
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
SousaMiranda
5.00Landed / min—
5.92Absorbed / min—
40%Accuracy—
51%Defense—
2.11KD / 15—
0.00KD abs / 15—
Grappling / Wrestling
SousaMiranda
0.00TD / 15—
3.17TD att / 15—
0%TD accuracy—
50%TD defense—
1:13Control / 15—
1.06Sub att / 15—
Targets
SousaMiranda
Head68%|—
Body23%|—
Leg10%|—
Position
SousaMiranda
Distance87%|—
Clinch11%|—
Ground1%|—
Ranking evolution Sousa Miranda
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Manoel Sousa
Manoel Sousa comes in on a 3-fight win streak with a 14-1 record across all organizations and a winning UFC debut behind him. His standout trait is the ability to close out fights early, and that finishing form has carried through his recent run. He last beat modest regional opposition.
Richie Miranda
Richie Miranda rides a 7-fight win streak into his UFC debut at 13-1 overall. He owns a real physical advantage here, carrying 13 cm of reach on Sousa, and fights out of the southpaw stance against Sousa's orthodox.
Matchup Read
Sousa's knack for ending fights early meets Miranda's length and frame. If Sousa can close the 13 cm reach gap and work inside, his finishing ability becomes the central threat in exchanges. Miranda's priority is using that reach to keep Sousa at the end of his punches, where the southpaw-orthodox angles complicate Sousa's entries. The question is whether Sousa gets through the distance across three rounds.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Sousa can cut the distance past Miranda's reach or gets kept on the end of jabs.
- Stance angles: how the southpaw-orthodox matchup shapes the lead-hand exchanges and entries.
- Finishing windows: whether Sousa can create the stoppage openings his recent run has been built on.
Key Uncertainty
With Miranda making his UFC debut and Sousa holding just one octagon appearance, there's very little top-level tape on either man to read this matchup against.
established · 11 UFC fightsestablished · 11 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 1 UFC fightsprovisional · 1 fights
STRIKING
P30
Striking Initiative
P1
P46
Volume
P44
P60
Striking Efficiency
P0
P50
Range Sniper
P7
P79
Kickboxing
P1
P4
Clinch Striking
P32
P100
Defensive Striking
P17
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P29
Wrestling
P29
P64
Pressure Wrestling
P0
P46
Top Control
P1
P14
Submission
P40
P93
Anti-Wrestling
P35
P86
Grappling Defense
P20
P62
Scrambler
P44
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P26
Power
P8
P2
Finisher
P26
P56
Damage Resistance
P34
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P7
Fast Starter
P0
P35
Pace
P1
P79
Late Fighter
P21
GLOBAL
P82
Versatility
P2
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
JohnsVazquez
3.25Landed / min1.60
2.98Absorbed / min3.93
43%Accuracy22%
67%Defense39%
0.21KD / 150.00
0.21KD abs / 151.00
Grappling / Wrestling
JohnsVazquez
0.95TD / 150.00
4.55TD att / 150.00
21%TD accuracy—
79%TD defense63%
2:13Control / 150:25
0.00Sub att / 152.00
Targets
JohnsVazquez
Head77%|54%
Body12%|17%
Leg11%|29%
Position
JohnsVazquez
Distance94%|96%
Clinch5%|4%
Ground1%|0%
Ranking evolution Johns Vazquez
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Miles Johns
Miles Johns brings a varied striking game built on workrate and forward pressure, backed by reasonable distance management and stand-up defense. He defends takedowns well and is quick to scramble back to his feet when put on his back. His chin has held up to punishment. Across all organizations he sits at 16-5, 6-5 in the UFC.
Gianni Vazquez
Gianni Vazquez carries an 8 cm reach advantage and owns the finishing edge when the chance presents itself. At 14-6 across all organizations, he dropped his UFC debut and has since built a one-fight win streak. His most recent setback came by stoppage.
Matchup Read
Vazquez's push to drag the fight to the mat runs straight into Johns' takedown defense and his habit of scrambling back upright, which blunts the ground route where Vazquez's finishing threat is most live. Standing, Johns' volume and pressure must close the 8 cm reach gap Vazquez can use to work at range. Johns' durability matters given Vazquez's finishing instinct, keeping the exchanges from turning decisive early.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Vazquez can hold Johns down long enough to hunt a finish, or Johns scrambles straight back up.
- Early striking: whether Johns can get inside the longer reach and force his pace, or Vazquez keeps him at the end of his range.
- Finishing windows: whether Vazquez can create a stoppage chance against a chin that has held up.
Key Uncertainty
With only a single UFC fight on Vazquez's record, there is limited high-level tape to gauge how his tools hold up against this caliber of opposition.















