← UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Diyar Nurgozhay vs Bruno Lopes
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld · 2026-08-08
71.4%
Model
58.0%
Market
1.66
Odds
+13.4
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
STRIKING
P87
Striking Initiative
P3
P80
Volume
P3
P98
Striking Efficiency
P7
P66
Range Sniper
P7
P100
Kickboxing
P4
P30
Clinch Striking
P95
P77
Defensive Striking
P13
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P61
Wrestling
P73
P47
Pressure Wrestling
P100
P28
Top Control
P95
P15
Submission
P38
P79
Anti-Wrestling
P53
P58
Grappling Defense
P82
P56
Scrambler
P33
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P23
Power
P11
P43
Finisher
P49
P29
Damage Resistance
P17
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P9
Fast Starter
P16
P40
Pace
P59
P46
Late Fighter
P41
GLOBAL
P75
Versatility
P24
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
NurgozhayLopes
4.87Landed / min2.47
2.85Absorbed / min4.28
61%Accuracy45%
59%Defense48%
0.00KD / 150.00
1.24KD abs / 151.16
Grappling / Wrestling
NurgozhayLopes
1.86TD / 152.89
2.48TD att / 1512.73
75%TD accuracy23%
78%TD defense100%
1:36Control / 155:58
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
NurgozhayLopes
Head33%|58%
Body40%|27%
Leg27%|16%
Position
NurgozhayLopes
Distance88%|52%
Clinch5%|44%
Ground7%|5%
Ranking evolution Nurgozhay Lopes
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Diyar Nurgozhay
Nurgozhay works behind sharp distance management and solid stand-up defense, backed by durability and the volume to press forward in striking exchanges. His 11-2 all-organizations mark includes a recent win, and he hasn't been finished in his recent outings, pointing to a reliable chin.
Bruno Lopes
Lopes brings the stronger grappling, with meaningful control once he gets on top and the ability to drag the fight to the mat. He carries a 14-3 record across all organizations, his lone UFC loss coming against the No. 37-ranked opponent.
Matchup Read
Lopes's push to get the fight down meets Nurgozhay's edge on the feet. Standing, Nurgozhay owns the range, output and the durability to weather exchanges, so Lopes's path runs through level changes and top control. If he lands those takedowns, his control game takes over; if Nurgozhay keeps it upright across three rounds, his volume and distance work dictate the pace. The southpaw-orthodox angles shape the striking entries.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Lopes can close distance and convert entries into sustained top control, or Nurgozhay keeps scrambling back up.
- Striking: how well Nurgozhay uses range and the stance mismatch to stack output and keep Lopes at the end of his punches.
- Late rounds: whether Nurgozhay's durability lets him absorb Lopes's pressure and push his own pace into round three.