← UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer
Navajo Stirling vs Bruno Lopes
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03-28
79.9%
Model
79.8%
Market
1.21
Odds
+0.1
Edge (pp)
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
STRIKING
P98
Striking Initiative
P4
P96
Volume
P2
P82
Striking Efficiency
P3
P68
Range Sniper
P1
P82
Kickboxing
P1
P40
Clinch Striking
P89
P82
Defensive Striking
P26
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P51
Wrestling
P82
P60
Pressure Wrestling
P100
P52
Top Control
P100
P2
Submission
P39
P20
Anti-Wrestling
P53
P53
Grappling Defense
P70
P30
Scrambler
P35
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P68
Power
P13
P12
Finisher
P47
P60
Damage Resistance
P27
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P31
Fast Starter
P30
P86
Pace
P71
P68
Late Fighter
P49
GLOBAL
P71
Versatility
P25
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
StirlingLopes
5.98Landed / min2.14
2.47Absorbed / min2.85
50%Accuracy46%
60%Defense50%
0.33KD / 150.00
0.00KD abs / 150.89
Grappling / Wrestling
StirlingLopes
1.33TD / 154.46
3.00TD att / 1512.48
44%TD accuracy36%
72%TD defense100%
2:36Control / 158:18
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
StirlingLopes
Head49%|61%
Body36%|31%
Leg15%|8%
Position
StirlingLopes
Distance83%|28%
Clinch8%|64%
Ground9%|8%
Ranking evolution Stirling Lopes
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Navajo Stirling
Stirling comes in unbeaten at 8-0, 3-0 in the UFC, riding an eight-fight win streak. He works behind a high-output, pressure-based striking game, and a 13 cm reach advantage gives him room to operate at range. He hasn't been dropped or finished recently and his last win came against the No. 46-ranked opponent.
Bruno Lopes
Lopes carries a 14-2 overall mark into this one, though he sits 1-1 in the UFC with his loss coming to the No. 22-ranked opponent. His strengths live on the mat: strong top control once the fight hits the floor, plus a real finishing threat from grappling exchanges.
Matchup Read
Early, the striking leans toward Stirling, whose volume and length let him fight at a range Lopes has to close. Later, the picture shifts if Lopes drags it down, where his top control and submission threat become the central danger. The fight likely turns on whether Lopes can change levels through that length and reach, or whether Stirling keeps it standing and racks up the striking exchanges. Stirling's recent durability matters if exchanges get heavy.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Stirling's reach keeps Lopes pinned at the end of his punches or Lopes slips inside to shoot.
- Grappling: once Lopes gets top position, how quickly he passes and hunts the finish versus Stirling getting back up.
- Late rounds: whether Stirling's output holds if the fight stays standing and stretches on.
Key Uncertainty
With only two UFC fights on record, Lopes's level against this tier of competition is still thinly established, which limits how firmly his ground game can be read against a striker of this quality.