← UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes
Navajo Stirling vs Rodolfo Bellato
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09-27
Navajo StirlingLow Data
81.8%
Model
65.2%
Market
1.48
Odds
+16.6
Edge (pp)
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 1 UFC fightsprovisional · 1 fights
STRIKING
P98
Striking Initiative
P69
P98
Volume
P52
P83
Striking Efficiency
P64
P72
Range Sniper
P34
P87
Kickboxing
P1
P25
Clinch Striking
P69
P90
Defensive Striking
P12
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P55
Wrestling
P49
P43
Pressure Wrestling
P87
P40
Top Control
P76
P2
Submission
P34
P20
Anti-Wrestling
P26
P54
Grappling Defense
P35
P33
Scrambler
P36
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P81
Power
P27
P26
Finisher
P65
P49
Damage Resistance
P34
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P19
Fast Starter
P6
P81
Pace
P92
P77
Late Fighter
—
GLOBAL
P64
Versatility
P33
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
StirlingBellato
6.27Landed / min8.62
2.27Absorbed / min7.86
49%Accuracy61%
64%Defense43%
0.50KD / 150.00
0.00KD abs / 151.62
Grappling / Wrestling
StirlingBellato
1.50TD / 151.62
2.50TD att / 156.46
60%TD accuracy25%
75%TD defense—
1:58Control / 154:33
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
StirlingBellato
Head46%|88%
Body34%|11%
Leg20%|1%
Position
StirlingBellato
Distance82%|23%
Clinch6%|14%
Ground12%|64%
Ranking evolution Stirling Bellato
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Navajo Stirling
Stirling brings a spotless 7-0 record, 2-0 in the UFC, riding a seven-fight win streak with a win over the No. 45-ranked opponent. He manages distance well behind a 10 cm reach advantage, absorbs damage without folding, and has looked sharp against stiffer competition than his opponent has faced.
Rodolfo Bellato
Bellato is 12-2 overall and won his UFC debut. His most dangerous work comes on the mat, where he carries real finishing threat and can control from top. Standing, he leans on volume and forward pressure. He returns from a long stretch out, having last fought nearly two years ago.
Matchup Read
Stirling owns the tested résumé and the cleaner striking tools, but Bellato holds the sharper matchup-specific route through grappling. On the feet, Stirling's reach and distance control meet Bellato's pressure and higher output, and his chin gives him margin if exchanges get heavy. The fight tilts if Bellato closes ground and drags it to the mat, where his top control and submission threat become the central danger. Keeping it standing keeps Stirling in his best space.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Stirling uses the 10 cm reach to keep Bellato at the end of his punches or Bellato's pressure closes it.
- Grappling: whether Bellato can change levels and establish top position, where his control and finishing threat live.
- Late rounds: whether Bellato's output holds up after 21.8 months out of competition.
Key Uncertainty
Both men are thinly tested at this level, Stirling with only two UFC fights and Bellato with one plus a layoff of nearly two years, so how each performs here is hard to read confidently.