← UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
Rafael Tobias vs Diyar Nurgozhay
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03-07
Rafael TobiasLow Data
55.3%
Model
67.4%
Market
1.43
Odds
-12.1
Edge (pp)
No UFC data yet
UFC debut · style profile after first fight
Style Matchup
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
STRIKING
Striking Initiative
P14
Volume
P23
Striking Efficiency
P60
Range Sniper
P23
Kickboxing
P97
Clinch Striking
P42
Defensive Striking
P54
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
Wrestling
P71
Pressure Wrestling
P68
Top Control
P37
Submission
P16
Anti-Wrestling
P34
Grappling Defense
P56
Scrambler
P34
DAMAGE / FINISHING
Power
P26
Finisher
P55
Damage Resistance
P30
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
Fast Starter
P9
Pace
P16
Late Fighter
—
GLOBAL
Versatility
P44
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
TobiasNurgozhay
—Landed / min2.60
—Absorbed / min3.25
—Accuracy48%
—Defense55%
—KD / 150.00
—KD abs / 153.25
Grappling / Wrestling
TobiasNurgozhay
—TD / 154.88
—TD att / 154.88
—TD accuracy100%
—TD defense100%
—Control / 151:49
—Sub att / 150.00
Targets
TobiasNurgozhay
Head—|25%
Body—|42%
Leg—|33%
Position
TobiasNurgozhay
Distance—|96%
Clinch—|4%
Ground—|0%
Ranking evolution Tobias Nurgozhay
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Rafael Tobias
Rafael Tobias enters on a seven-fight win streak with a 14-1 mark across all organizations, built against modest regional opposition. His most consistent weapon is his finishing threat on the ground, where he can hunt for stoppages once the fight hits the mat. An orthodox fighter making his UFC debut.
Diyar Nurgozhay
Diyar Nurgozhay is 10-2 overall and 0-2 in the UFC, but has faced the sterner competition of the two, holding up better against higher-level opponents. A southpaw coming off 6.4 months out, his last loss came against modest regional opposition.
Matchup Read
Early on, the concern for Nurgozhay is the mat: if Tobias establishes top position, his submission threat becomes the central danger, and Nurgozhay needs to stay upright to keep the fight in his range. As it wears on, the picture tilts toward Nurgozhay's tougher tested résumé against better opponents. The orthodox-southpaw mismatch reshapes the striking angles, affecting who dictates entries into the clinch or takedown attempts.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Tobias can turn top position into submission attempts, or Nurgozhay keeps scrambling free and back to his feet.
- Early striking: how the orthodox-southpaw angles shape lead-hand exchanges and who lands cleaner on the entries.
- As it wears on: whether Nurgozhay's experience against stiffer opposition shows in the later exchanges.
Key Uncertainty
Reading this is difficult because both men are largely untested at this level: Tobias debuts in the UFC with no history there, while Nurgozhay carries just two UFC fights, both losses, so form against this tier is hard to gauge.