← UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Steven Asplund vs Guilherme Pat
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld · 2026-08-08
63.2%
Model
66.9%
Market
1.44
Odds
-3.7
Edge (pp)
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P100
Striking Initiative
P14
P100
Volume
P25
P100
Striking Efficiency
P100
P97
Range Sniper
P93
P97
Kickboxing
P98
P7
Clinch Striking
P72
P34
Defensive Striking
P56
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P22
Wrestling
P22
P0
Pressure Wrestling
P5
P1
Top Control
P3
P1
Submission
P0
P54
Anti-Wrestling
P0
P75
Grappling Defense
P59
P31
Scrambler
P31
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P84
Power
P30
P77
Finisher
P39
P61
Damage Resistance
P36
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P51
Fast Starter
P7
P32
Pace
P0
P8
Late Fighter
P19
GLOBAL
P28
Versatility
P36
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
AsplundPat
9.70Landed / min2.70
6.63Absorbed / min2.03
51%Accuracy62%
50%Defense52%
0.63KD / 150.00
0.00KD abs / 150.50
Grappling / Wrestling
AsplundPat
0.00TD / 150.00
0.00TD att / 150.00
—TD accuracy—
100%TD defense100%
0:09Control / 150:22
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
AsplundPat
Head87%|77%
Body4%|14%
Leg8%|10%
Position
AsplundPat
Distance97%|86%
Clinch2%|14%
Ground1%|0%
Ranking evolution Asplund Pat
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Steven Asplund
Steven Asplund brings the busier, more forward striking game, working at a higher output and carrying recent knockout power with finishing form to match. His stand-up defense and ability to eat a shot both lean slightly in his favor, rounding out a stylistically aggressive heavyweight at 7-2 overall.
Guilherme Pat
Guilherme Pat owns the longer frame in this pairing, roughly 8 cm of reach on Asplund, and his striking volume has been climbing of late. At 6-1 across all organizations, he can use that length to fight from the outside.
Matchup Read
The striking is where this gets decided, and it pulls in two directions. Asplund's pressure and power push him to close distance and make it a phone-booth fight, where his finishing threat lives. Pat's 8 cm of reach rewards the opposite plan, keeping range and firing as Asplund steps in. Whoever dictates distance controls the exchanges: Asplund inside with his heavier hands, or Pat landing first from the end of his length.
What to Watch
- Distance battle: whether Asplund can close the 8 cm reach gap or Pat keeps him at the end of his jab
- Early striking: who lands the cleaner shots first, Asplund's power inside or Pat's volume from range
- Durability: how Pat holds up if Asplund connects clean given Asplund's recent finishing form
Key Uncertainty
Both men carry only two UFC fights apiece, so there's a thin top-level record to judge how either holds up once this steps above modest regional opposition.