← UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
Thomas Petersen vs Guilherme Pat
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04-04
Thomas PetersenLow Data
53.3%
Model
50.6%
Market
1.90
Odds
+2.7
Edge (pp)
limited sample · 5 UFC fightslimited · 5 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P53
Striking Initiative
P75
P23
Volume
P73
P87
Striking Efficiency
P100
P22
Range Sniper
P92
P80
Kickboxing
P97
P28
Clinch Striking
P75
P52
Defensive Striking
P80
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P88
Wrestling
P29
P78
Pressure Wrestling
P8
P92
Top Control
P6
P21
Submission
P0
P44
Anti-Wrestling
P1
P87
Grappling Defense
P1
P32
Scrambler
P34
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P26
Power
P36
P65
Finisher
P40
P12
Damage Resistance
P41
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P39
Fast Starter
—
P73
Pace
P3
P80
Late Fighter
P46
GLOBAL
P97
Versatility
P28
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
PetersenPat
3.36Landed / min4.27
3.00Absorbed / min2.20
57%Accuracy64%
57%Defense62%
0.00KD / 150.00
0.77KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
PetersenPat
3.33TD / 150.00
7.42TD att / 150.00
45%TD accuracy—
86%TD defense—
5:05Control / 150:44
0.26Sub att / 150.00
Targets
PetersenPat
Head62%|83%
Body30%|13%
Leg8%|5%
Position
PetersenPat
Distance80%|84%
Clinch6%|16%
Ground14%|0%
Ranking evolution Petersen Pat
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Thomas Petersen
Thomas Petersen carries a 2-3 UFC mark and an 11-4 all-organizations record. His comparative strengths here sit on the feet: sharper distance management and stand-up defense, a chin that holds up, and stand-up defense that has been tightening lately. He fights southpaw and last dropped a bout to the No. 45-ranked opponent.
Guilherme Pat
Guilherme Pat rides a six-fight win streak and a 6-0 record, having won his UFC debut over modest regional opposition. He owns a large physical build with roughly 18 cm more reach, a durable frame that absorbs damage well, and no recent stoppage loss on his ledger. His striking output has been climbing.
Matchup Read
Petersen brings the deeper cage résumé, but Pat holds the sharper matchup-specific tools, chiefly his length and frame. The reach gap shapes the striking exchanges: Pat can work behind the jab from the outside, while Petersen's distance management and defense become the counter to that, especially navigating the southpaw-orthodox angles. With both durable, this can settle over the distance, where Petersen's stand-up defense meets Pat's rising volume.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Petersen can close the 18 cm reach gap or gets kept on the end of Pat's jab.
- Volume: whether Pat's rising output forces Petersen into exchanges rather than clean defensive counters.
- Late rounds: which fighter's chin and pace hold up as the exchanges accumulate.
Key Uncertainty
Pat has just one UFC fight on record, so how his skills and rising volume translate against tougher, more experienced opposition remains largely untested at this level.