← UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
Thomas Petersen vs Vitor Petrino
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10-11
57.0%
Model
28.2%
Market
3.42
Odds
+28.8
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
limited sample · 7 UFC fightslimited · 7 fights
STRIKING
P63
Striking Initiative
P6
P25
Volume
P12
P88
Striking Efficiency
P18
P25
Range Sniper
P18
P79
Kickboxing
P26
P27
Clinch Striking
P8
P62
Defensive Striking
P12
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P92
Wrestling
P93
P88
Pressure Wrestling
P80
P98
Top Control
P94
P22
Submission
P48
P64
Anti-Wrestling
P96
P89
Grappling Defense
P80
P34
Scrambler
P97
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P30
Power
P66
P64
Finisher
P72
P35
Damage Resistance
P42
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P49
Fast Starter
P88
P77
Pace
P67
P87
Late Fighter
P19
GLOBAL
P97
Versatility
P47
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
PetersenPetrino
3.76Landed / min2.45
3.01Absorbed / min2.67
59%Accuracy44%
59%Defense46%
0.00KD / 150.22
0.31KD abs / 150.22
Grappling / Wrestling
PetersenPetrino
4.05TD / 153.66
6.54TD att / 156.24
62%TD accuracy59%
100%TD defense72%
5:31Control / 155:42
0.31Sub att / 151.08
Targets
PetersenPetrino
Head64%|67%
Body28%|20%
Leg8%|13%
Position
PetersenPetrino
Distance80%|79%
Clinch5%|2%
Ground15%|19%
Ranking evolution Petersen Petrino
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Thomas Petersen
Thomas Petersen's most consistent asset is his engine: he holds his pace and output deep into fights, backing it with steady forward pressure and a workmanlike jab. His stand-up defense holds up at range. He arrives on a one-fight win streak, though his last win came against lower-ranked opposition.
Vitor Petrino
Vitor Petrino's recent run has been built on finishes, with an active submission game and the ability to work back to his feet when put on his back. At 5-2 in the UFC and 12-2 overall, his grappling has produced the more decisive endings lately. He owns an 8 cm reach advantage.
Matchup Read
Petrino's submission threat and scrambling meet Petersen's push to grind out a paced, pressure-heavy fight. If Petrino drags it to the mat, his finishing game is the central danger, and Petersen's escapes will be tested against a man who returns to his feet well himself. Keeping it standing and long serves Petersen, where his volume and cardio compound as rounds pile up and Petrino's early finishing threat cools.
What to Watch
- Early grappling: whether Petrino can put Petersen down and hunt a submission before the pace becomes a factor.
- Scrambles: how quickly each man returns to his feet once the fight hits the mat.
- Late rounds: whether Petersen's output and pace hold up if the finish doesn't come early for Petrino.