← UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos
Vitor Petrino vs Steven Asplund
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03-14
Vitor PetrinoLow Data
55.3%
Model
65.8%
Market
1.46
Odds
-10.5
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
provisional · 1 UFC fightsprovisional · 1 fights
STRIKING
P9
Striking Initiative
P100
P11
Volume
P100
P21
Striking Efficiency
P100
P26
Range Sniper
P75
P20
Kickboxing
P98
P30
Clinch Striking
P14
P13
Defensive Striking
P56
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P91
Wrestling
P29
P75
Pressure Wrestling
P0
P89
Top Control
P33
P46
Submission
P0
P96
Anti-Wrestling
P41
P92
Grappling Defense
P51
P96
Scrambler
P36
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P89
Power
P39
P79
Finisher
P65
P44
Damage Resistance
P45
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P85
Fast Starter
P16
P68
Pace
P40
P10
Late Fighter
—
GLOBAL
P54
Versatility
P53
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
PetrinoAsplund
2.52Landed / min19.28
2.52Absorbed / min7.49
46%Accuracy58%
47%Defense57%
0.56KD / 150.00
0.19KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
PetrinoAsplund
3.37TD / 150.00
6.55TD att / 150.00
51%TD accuracy—
81%TD defense100%
5:32Control / 150:05
0.94Sub att / 150.00
Targets
PetrinoAsplund
Head69%|91%
Body20%|4%
Leg11%|6%
Position
PetrinoAsplund
Distance73%|98%
Clinch6%|2%
Ground21%|0%
Ranking evolution Petrino Asplund
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Vitor Petrino
Petrino brings the tested résumé, with sharp distance management and stand-up defense, a durable chin, and a recent submission threat that shows on the ground. His 6-2 UFC run includes work against a top-25 opponent, and he carries a two-fight winning streak into this one.
Steven Asplund
Asplund leans on volume and forward pressure on the feet, and at 8 cm taller he owns the height to work behind. He rides a four-fight winning streak and won his UFC debut, with a slight edge in defending takedowns and keeping exchanges standing.
Matchup Read
Petrino carries the deeper track record and proven grappling danger, while Asplund's matchup-specific tools sit in the striking. If Asplund pressures and pushes volume, Petrino's distance control and durability become the counter, and his submission threat gives him a route once it hits the mat. Asplund's takedown defense complicates that entry, so whether Petrino can drag it down against a taller man who wants it standing decides much here.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Asplund's forward volume forces Petrino out of his preferred range or Petrino manages distance and answers cleanly.
- Grappling: whether Petrino can get past Asplund's takedown defense and turn top position into submission attempts.
- Late rounds: whether Asplund sustains his pressure or Petrino's durability lets him weather it and reset the exchanges.
Key Uncertainty
Asplund has just one UFC fight on record, so how his pressure and takedown defense hold up against this level of opposition is hard to gauge with confidence.