Winning bet Losing bet No bet · win No bet · loss
2026-03-14
+24.13%
ROI
+1.9u
Gain
83.3%
Accuracy
11
Fights
▼
Style Matchup
established · 16 UFC fightsestablished · 16 fights
STRIKING
P87
Striking Initiative
P31
P87
Volume
P64
P47
Striking Efficiency
P10
P74
Range Sniper
P52
P60
Kickboxing
P36
P43
Clinch Striking
P7
P66
Defensive Striking
P82
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P43
Wrestling
P40
P29
Pressure Wrestling
P38
P62
Top Control
P46
P16
Submission
P21
P43
Anti-Wrestling
P91
P74
Grappling Defense
P39
P30
Scrambler
P39
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P98
Power
P77
P77
Finisher
P6
P59
Damage Resistance
P85
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P31
Fast Starter
P11
P72
Pace
P29
P51
Late Fighter
P95
GLOBAL
P50
Versatility
P18
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
VallejosEmmett
5.03Landed / min3.72
3.94Absorbed / min4.42
43%Accuracy36%
58%Defense60%
1.22KD / 150.87
0.00KD abs / 150.14
Grappling / Wrestling
VallejosEmmett
1.22TD / 151.08
3.65TD att / 152.89
33%TD accuracy38%
89%TD defense44%
1:42Control / 151:13
0.00Sub att / 150.07
Targets
VallejosEmmett
Head63%|64%
Body26%|21%
Leg11%|15%
Position
VallejosEmmett
Distance88%|84%
Clinch8%|6%
Ground4%|10%
Ranking evolution Vallejos Emmett
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Kevin Vallejos
Kevin Vallejos rides a six-fight win streak and is 3-0 in the UFC, 17-1 overall, his last win coming over the No. 24-ranked opponent. He keeps fights standing when he wants and finishes them, with rising striking output and a gas tank that holds pace deep. His only loss came against modest regional opposition.
Josh Emmett
Josh Emmett owns a long resume, 19-6 overall and 10-6 in the UFC, with wins over ranked names including the No. 12-ranked opponent. His recent stretch has been thin, going 1-5 in his last five UFC fights. At 5 cm the longer man, he can work behind that reach.
Matchup Read
Standing, the fight favors Vallejos's climbing volume and finishing threat, while Emmett's reach gives him room to land power from the outside. If it stretches deep, Vallejos's cardio and pace become the story, and Emmett has to make his moments count early. Vallejos's ability to defend takedowns keeps exchanges where he wants them; Emmett's path runs through landing something heavy before the pace tells.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Emmett can plant behind his reach and connect clean before Vallejos ramps up his volume.
- Late rounds: if the fight passes ten minutes, watch whether Vallejos's pace pulls ahead as Emmett's output dips.
- Grappling: how often either man tries to change levels, and whether Vallejos keeps it standing on his terms.
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
Style Matchup
established · 24 UFC fightsestablished · 24 fights
STRIKING
P98
Striking Initiative
P39
P93
Volume
P71
P95
Striking Efficiency
P14
P95
Range Sniper
P45
P63
Kickboxing
P31
P60
Clinch Striking
P13
P18
Defensive Striking
P28
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P12
Wrestling
P80
P22
Pressure Wrestling
P77
P30
Top Control
P51
P40
Submission
P27
P35
Anti-Wrestling
P90
P27
Grappling Defense
P73
P31
Scrambler
P71
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P98
Power
P47
P88
Finisher
P8
P40
Damage Resistance
P45
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P95
Fast Starter
P12
P69
Pace
P71
P36
Late Fighter
P41
GLOBAL
P31
Versatility
P27
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
DelgadoFili
8.91Landed / min3.82
5.87Absorbed / min4.26
58%Accuracy37%
47%Defense51%
2.45KD / 150.35
0.82KD abs / 150.35
Grappling / Wrestling
DelgadoFili
0.00TD / 152.21
2.45TD att / 154.95
0%TD accuracy45%
43%TD defense69%
1:20Control / 152:25
0.00Sub att / 150.23
Targets
DelgadoFili
Head69%|72%
Body26%|15%
Leg5%|13%
Position
DelgadoFili
Distance72%|87%
Clinch10%|6%
Ground18%|8%
Ranking evolution Delgado Fili
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Jose Delgado
Jose Delgado brings pressure and output on the feet, forcing exchanges and stacking volume, and he carries real finishing ability whether it goes to the mat or stays standing. His ground work threatens submissions, his cardio holds up late, and his defensive work has been trending upward. He's 2-1 in the UFC, 10-2 overall.
Andre Fili
Andre Fili is the far more experienced hand at 25-12 across all organizations and 13-11 in the UFC, riding a one-fight win. His main matchup asset here is getting the fight to the mat, and his ground control has been improving of late.
Matchup Read
Fili's push to drag it down meets Delgado's danger both standing and off the mat. If Fili scores takedowns and works from top, he steers the fight away from Delgado's volume, but landing on Delgado's back invites the submission threat. Should it stay upright, Delgado's pressure and finishing ability set the terms, and his cardio favors him if it stretches deep.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Fili can complete takedowns and stabilize on top, or whether Delgado threatens off his back the moment it hits the mat.
- Early striking: how much volume and forward pressure Delgado can impose before Fili changes levels.
- Late rounds: whether Delgado's pace holds up and his finishing danger carries into the closing stretch.
No UFC data yet
UFC debut · style profile after first fight
Style Matchup
provisional · 1 UFC fightsprovisional · 1 fights
STRIKING
Striking Initiative
P1
Volume
P23
Striking Efficiency
P15
Range Sniper
P32
Kickboxing
P68
Clinch Striking
P49
Defensive Striking
P32
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
Wrestling
P29
Pressure Wrestling
P0
Top Control
P0
Submission
P32
Anti-Wrestling
P58
Grappling Defense
P51
Scrambler
P36
DAMAGE / FINISHING
Power
P6
Finisher
P30
Damage Resistance
P30
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
Fast Starter
P3
Pace
P0
Late Fighter
—
GLOBAL
Versatility
P14
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
RahikiHardwick
—Landed / min2.39
—Absorbed / min7.16
—Accuracy35%
—Defense40%
—KD / 150.00
—KD abs / 154.48
Grappling / Wrestling
RahikiHardwick
—TD / 150.00
—TD att / 150.00
—TD accuracy—
—TD defense—
—Control / 150:00
—Sub att / 150.00
Targets
RahikiHardwick
Head—|75%
Body—|0%
Leg—|25%
Position
RahikiHardwick
Distance—|100%
Clinch—|0%
Ground—|0%
Ranking evolution Rahiki Hardwick
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Marwan Rahiki
Marwan Rahiki arrives unbeaten at 7-0 across all organizations, riding a seven-fight win streak against modest regional opposition. His standout trait is a habit of ending fights before the judges get involved, and he has not been stopped in his recent outings.
Harry Hardwick
Harry Hardwick brings a 13-4 record and a switch stance that lets him work from either side. His most relevant tool here is a finishing threat once the fight hits the mat. He dropped his UFC debut and last fought 6.2 months ago.
Matchup Read
Standing, Rahiki's finishing power is the story, and staying upright plays to his ability to close the show. On the ground, the picture shifts toward Hardwick, whose submission threat off the canvas is the central danger for Rahiki. The switch stance can complicate Rahiki's orthodox angles and lines of entry. If Hardwick can drag exchanges to the mat, his finishing threat becomes live; if Rahiki keeps it standing, his power dictates.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Rahiki can find his power shots against Hardwick's switching stance and shifting angles.
- Grappling: whether Hardwick can get the fight to the floor and work toward his submission threat, or Rahiki keeps it upright.
- Recent form: how Hardwick looks after 6.2 months out and coming off a debut loss.
Key Uncertainty
Reading this cleanly is hard: Rahiki is a UFC debutant with no top-level history, and Hardwick has just one Octagon fight, so both profiles rest largely on regional results.
Style Matchup
established · 18 UFC fightsestablished · 18 fights
STRIKING
P40
Striking Initiative
P73
P43
Volume
P68
P51
Striking Efficiency
P28
P12
Range Sniper
P21
P70
Kickboxing
P17
P53
Clinch Striking
P85
P84
Defensive Striking
P14
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P77
Wrestling
P92
P75
Pressure Wrestling
P70
P96
Top Control
P52
P60
Submission
P40
P64
Anti-Wrestling
P13
P87
Grappling Defense
P50
P33
Scrambler
P22
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P15
Power
P53
P59
Finisher
P91
P57
Damage Resistance
P32
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P70
Fast Starter
P87
P93
Pace
P92
P49
Late Fighter
P21
GLOBAL
P87
Versatility
P37
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
SyCutelaba
3.67Landed / min4.21
1.72Absorbed / min3.09
48%Accuracy43%
70%Defense48%
0.00KD / 150.21
0.00KD abs / 150.32
Grappling / Wrestling
SyCutelaba
2.73TD / 153.21
7.42TD att / 156.42
37%TD accuracy50%
100%TD defense76%
5:33Control / 153:06
0.39Sub att / 150.11
Targets
SyCutelaba
Head52%|68%
Body20%|19%
Leg28%|13%
Position
SyCutelaba
Distance82%|59%
Clinch9%|22%
Ground9%|19%
Ranking evolution Sy Cutelaba
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Oumar Sy
Oumar Sy comes in at 12-1 overall and 3-1 in the UFC, winning three of his last four. He carries a sizable frame with a 20 cm reach advantage, recent knockout power, and a deep gas tank that holds up over the distance. His length also helps him manage range and limit what comes back.
Ion Cutelaba
Ion Cutelaba brings a long résumé at 19-11 across all organizations and 8-10 in the UFC, taking three of his last five. A southpaw, he last beat lower-ranked opposition and has been out for just over 10 months.
Matchup Read
Cutelaba carries the deeper experience, but the matchup-specific tools lean Sy's way. The 20 cm reach edge, paired with his range management against Cutelaba's southpaw angles, shapes most of the striking. If Cutelaba looks to change levels, Sy's takedown defense keeps it standing, and when it does hit the mat Sy's top control applies. With his cardio and finishing threat, the longer this goes the more his output and power matter.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Cutelaba can close the 20 cm reach gap and get inside, or eats shots walking in.
- Grappling: if Cutelaba shoots, can Sy stuff it and keep the fight standing, or does he end up on top.
- Late rounds: whether Sy's pace and power start telling as the fight wears on.
established · 13 UFC fightsestablished · 13 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P86
Striking Initiative
P38
P87
Volume
P45
P87
Striking Efficiency
P81
P84
Range Sniper
P93
P90
Kickboxing
P73
P60
Clinch Striking
P45
P72
Defensive Striking
P7
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P11
Wrestling
P54
P19
Pressure Wrestling
P75
P9
Top Control
P38
P35
Submission
P47
P32
Anti-Wrestling
P13
P43
Grappling Defense
P39
P46
Scrambler
P14
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P56
Power
P88
P35
Finisher
P91
P64
Damage Resistance
P23
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P4
Fast Starter
P39
P39
Pace
P34
P81
Late Fighter
P70
GLOBAL
P44
Versatility
P45
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
JohnsonSilva
4.68Landed / min4.00
3.94Absorbed / min5.07
50%Accuracy50%
57%Defense47%
0.37KD / 150.71
0.28KD abs / 150.64
Grappling / Wrestling
JohnsonSilva
0.55TD / 151.51
2.77TD att / 155.24
20%TD accuracy29%
67%TD defense71%
1:05Control / 152:04
0.37Sub att / 150.16
Targets
JohnsonSilva
Head50%|66%
Body28%|19%
Leg21%|15%
Position
JohnsonSilva
Distance82%|79%
Clinch13%|9%
Ground5%|12%
Ranking evolution Johnson Silva
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Charles Johnson
Charles Johnson works best at range, using a 13cm reach advantage and switch-stance looks to manage distance and keep exchanges on the outside. His stand-up defense is a touch sharper here, and he carries a strong gas tank deep into fights. His chin has held up reasonably well recently. Last win came over the No. 42-ranked opponent.
Bruno Silva
Bruno Silva brings a deep all-organizations résumé at 38-24 and a live submission threat, the most dangerous tool he carries into this matchup. He's on a one-fight win streak, with his last victory coming against the No. 43-ranked opponent. His own durability has held up of late despite a thin recent UFC run.
Matchup Read
Standing favors Johnson's range and length; the ground brings Silva's submission threat into play. The reach gap lets Johnson fight on the outside and keep this a kickboxing match, where his conditioning grows in value over the distance. Silva's path runs through closing that space and getting the fight to the mat, where his finishing becomes the central danger. Johnson's recent durability matters most if Silva's power connects on entries.
What to Watch
- Distance: whether Johnson keeps Silva at the end of his range or gets drawn into close exchanges.
- Grappling: if the fight hits the mat, how quickly Silva hunts for a submission before Johnson can scramble or stand.
- Late rounds: whether Johnson's pace tells as the fight wears on and exchanges pile up.
limited sample · 5 UFC fightslimited · 5 fights
Style Matchup
established · 10 UFC fightsestablished · 10 fights
STRIKING
P22
Striking Initiative
P88
P15
Volume
P93
P32
Striking Efficiency
P97
P35
Range Sniper
P97
P19
Kickboxing
P96
P20
Clinch Striking
P29
P17
Defensive Striking
P61
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P97
Wrestling
P2
P96
Pressure Wrestling
P1
P92
Top Control
P4
P72
Submission
P9
P67
Anti-Wrestling
P99
P20
Grappling Defense
P97
P89
Scrambler
P36
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P86
Power
P53
P85
Finisher
P19
P50
Damage Resistance
P77
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P75
Fast Starter
P2
P87
Pace
P12
P44
Late Fighter
P96
GLOBAL
P44
Versatility
P24
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
OrolbaiCurtis
3.24Landed / min6.04
3.31Absorbed / min6.21
48%Accuracy50%
50%Defense55%
0.64KD / 150.34
0.32KD abs / 150.11
Grappling / Wrestling
OrolbaiCurtis
5.48TD / 150.00
11.92TD att / 150.11
46%TD accuracy0%
40%TD defense87%
6:35Control / 150:20
0.64Sub att / 150.00
Targets
OrolbaiCurtis
Head76%|70%
Body13%|26%
Leg11%|4%
Position
OrolbaiCurtis
Distance72%|92%
Clinch3%|7%
Ground25%|1%
Ranking evolution Orolbai Curtis
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Myktybek Orolbai
Orolbai brings a strong push to get the fight to the mat and the finishing ability to close once he's there, with four wins in his last five UFC outings and a two-fight streak. His stand-up defense and distance work hold up, and his chin has been reliable. Recent finishing momentum backs the threat.
Chris Curtis
Curtis, at 31-12 across all organizations, leans on the striking, where his volume and forward pressure give him a slight edge. His takedown defense stands out as the tool built to keep this fight in his preferred range. Two wins in his last five UFC fights.
Matchup Read
Orolbai's drive to get it down meets Curtis's takedown defense head-on, and that collision decides most of this. If Orolbai puts him on the mat, his top game and finishing ability become the central danger. Kept upright, Curtis's higher output and pressure take over, though Orolbai's distance management and durability give him tools to survive the striking and reset his entries.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Orolbai's level changes get through Curtis's takedown defense, or get stuffed against the fence.
- Early striking: whether Curtis can impose his volume and forward pressure before the fight hits the mat.
- Once grounded: how quickly Orolbai works toward a finish versus Curtis scrambling back to his feet.
Style Matchup
provisional · 1 UFC fightsprovisional · 1 fights
STRIKING
P9
Striking Initiative
P100
P11
Volume
P100
P21
Striking Efficiency
P100
P26
Range Sniper
P75
P20
Kickboxing
P98
P30
Clinch Striking
P14
P13
Defensive Striking
P56
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P91
Wrestling
P29
P75
Pressure Wrestling
P0
P89
Top Control
P33
P46
Submission
P0
P96
Anti-Wrestling
P41
P92
Grappling Defense
P51
P96
Scrambler
P36
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P89
Power
P39
P79
Finisher
P65
P44
Damage Resistance
P45
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P85
Fast Starter
P16
P68
Pace
P40
P10
Late Fighter
—
GLOBAL
P54
Versatility
P53
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
PetrinoAsplund
2.52Landed / min19.28
2.52Absorbed / min7.49
46%Accuracy58%
47%Defense57%
0.56KD / 150.00
0.19KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
PetrinoAsplund
3.37TD / 150.00
6.55TD att / 150.00
51%TD accuracy—
81%TD defense100%
5:32Control / 150:05
0.94Sub att / 150.00
Targets
PetrinoAsplund
Head69%|91%
Body20%|4%
Leg11%|6%
Position
PetrinoAsplund
Distance73%|98%
Clinch6%|2%
Ground21%|0%
Ranking evolution Petrino Asplund
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Vitor Petrino
Petrino brings the tested résumé, with sharp distance management and stand-up defense, a durable chin, and a recent submission threat that shows on the ground. His 6-2 UFC run includes work against a top-25 opponent, and he carries a two-fight winning streak into this one.
Steven Asplund
Asplund leans on volume and forward pressure on the feet, and at 8 cm taller he owns the height to work behind. He rides a four-fight winning streak and won his UFC debut, with a slight edge in defending takedowns and keeping exchanges standing.
Matchup Read
Petrino carries the deeper track record and proven grappling danger, while Asplund's matchup-specific tools sit in the striking. If Asplund pressures and pushes volume, Petrino's distance control and durability become the counter, and his submission threat gives him a route once it hits the mat. Asplund's takedown defense complicates that entry, so whether Petrino can drag it down against a taller man who wants it standing decides much here.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Asplund's forward volume forces Petrino out of his preferred range or Petrino manages distance and answers cleanly.
- Grappling: whether Petrino can get past Asplund's takedown defense and turn top position into submission attempts.
- Late rounds: whether Asplund sustains his pressure or Petrino's durability lets him weather it and reset the exchanges.
Key Uncertainty
Asplund has just one UFC fight on record, so how his pressure and takedown defense hold up against this level of opposition is hard to gauge with confidence.
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
STRIKING
P53
Striking Initiative
P31
P30
Volume
P13
P41
Striking Efficiency
P75
P9
Range Sniper
P15
P6
Kickboxing
P84
P32
Clinch Striking
P64
P39
Defensive Striking
P96
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P64
Wrestling
P69
P67
Pressure Wrestling
P70
P78
Top Control
P88
P31
Submission
P51
P77
Anti-Wrestling
P45
P27
Grappling Defense
P20
P91
Scrambler
P31
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P31
Power
P4
P49
Finisher
P12
P45
Damage Resistance
P58
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P66
Fast Starter
P46
P86
Pace
P51
P27
Late Fighter
P77
GLOBAL
P38
Versatility
P80
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
SmithYou
4.02Landed / min2.62
2.09Absorbed / min2.07
54%Accuracy52%
53%Defense72%
0.00KD / 150.00
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
SmithYou
2.35TD / 152.33
3.13TD att / 157.00
75%TD accuracy33%
40%TD defense0%
5:15Control / 154:16
0.78Sub att / 150.33
Targets
SmithYou
Head83%|68%
Body5%|16%
Leg12%|16%
Position
SmithYou
Distance49%|86%
Clinch4%|12%
Ground47%|3%
Ranking evolution Smith You
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Elijah Smith
Elijah Smith pairs real takedown ability with the defensive wrestling to keep things where he wants, and he carries a 15 cm reach advantage to work behind. His recent run has been built on finishes, with knockout power showing up across a 7-fight win streak and a 9-1 overall mark.
SuYoung You
SuYoung You comes in unbeaten through 3 UFC fights and 17-3 overall, riding a 5-fight win streak. His standout quality for this matchup is cardio: a gas tank that holds up over the distance and a pace he can sustain deep into the fight.
Matchup Read
The early and middle rounds tilt toward Smith's tools, his wrestling in both directions, the length he can fight behind, and the finishing power that has ended recent fights. You's path runs the other way, through time: the longer this goes, the more his durability and late-round pace matter. If Smith can't close early and You weathers the power, the grind of the later rounds becomes You's territory.
What to Watch
- Early rounds: whether Smith can use his reach and takedown threat to stack damage before fatigue sets in.
- Grappling exchanges: if Smith controls where the fight happens, or You forces scrambles and drags it into deep water.
- Late rounds: does You's pace hold up and pull the tempo into territory that favors him?
Key Uncertainty
With only 2 UFC fights on Smith's record, there's a limited sample against this level of competition, which makes his ceiling against a tested 17-fight opponent harder to pin down.
No UFC data yet
UFC debut · style profile after first fight
Style Matchup
provisional · 4 UFC fightsprovisional · 4 fights
STRIKING
Striking Initiative
P95
Volume
P97
Striking Efficiency
P74
Range Sniper
P88
Kickboxing
P73
Clinch Striking
P6
Defensive Striking
P84
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
Wrestling
P50
Pressure Wrestling
P8
Top Control
P20
Submission
P8
Anti-Wrestling
P27
Grappling Defense
P38
Scrambler
P24
DAMAGE / FINISHING
Power
P63
Finisher
P24
Damage Resistance
P41
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
Fast Starter
P89
Pace
P46
Late Fighter
P27
GLOBAL
Versatility
P47
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
SousaOki
—Landed / min6.26
—Absorbed / min5.21
—Accuracy43%
—Defense61%
—KD / 150.36
—KD abs / 150.36
Grappling / Wrestling
SousaOki
—TD / 151.07
—TD att / 151.79
—TD accuracy60%
—TD defense67%
—Control / 151:12
—Sub att / 150.00
Targets
SousaOki
Head—|74%
Body—|20%
Leg—|6%
Position
SousaOki
Distance—|95%
Clinch—|3%
Ground—|2%
Ranking evolution Sousa Oki
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Manoel Sousa
Manoel Sousa arrives on a 13-1 record and a two-fight win streak, carrying real finishing ability that lets him end fights before the judges. His most consistent threat is closing the show, and he brings a submission danger once the fight hits the mat. He hasn't been stopped in his recent outings.
Bolaji Oki
Bolaji Oki sits at 10-3 overall and 2-2 in the UFC, taking two of his last four there. He owns the physical dimensions here, an 8 cm reach advantage that gives him length to work behind. He's coming off 6.2 months out of action.
Matchup Read
The finishing pressure runs through Sousa: his ability to end things and his threat on the ground both matter most in the early and middle exchanges. Oki's 8 cm of reach lets him fight long and keep Sousa at the end of his strikes, where the debutant has to close space to bring his mat game and finishing into play. If Sousa gets it to the floor, his submission threat becomes the central danger. If Oki keeps it at range, distance decides it.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Oki can plant his jab and use the length to keep Sousa from closing the gap.
- Grappling: if Sousa gets top position, watch how quickly his submission threat forces scrambles or a stoppage.
- Finishing windows: whether Sousa presses for an early finish or Oki drags him into deeper water.
Key Uncertainty
Sousa enters on his UFC debut with no promotional history to read, so how his finishing and ground game translate against this level of opposition remains the main open question.
established · 18 UFC fightsestablished · 18 fights
Style Matchup
established · 27 UFC fightsestablished · 27 fights
STRIKING
P23
Striking Initiative
P33
P17
Volume
P62
P30
Striking Efficiency
P42
P25
Range Sniper
P50
P12
Kickboxing
P72
P93
Clinch Striking
P31
P11
Defensive Striking
P59
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P55
Wrestling
P19
P85
Pressure Wrestling
P39
P82
Top Control
P30
P16
Submission
P10
P79
Anti-Wrestling
P43
P89
Grappling Defense
P80
P66
Scrambler
P44
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P72
Power
P15
P45
Finisher
P1
P25
Damage Resistance
P25
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P41
Fast Starter
P9
P65
Pace
P31
P95
Late Fighter
P55
GLOBAL
P42
Versatility
P27
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
AndersTavares
3.39Landed / min3.42
4.11Absorbed / min3.36
47%Accuracy43%
50%Defense55%
0.41KD / 150.17
0.55KD abs / 150.34
Grappling / Wrestling
AndersTavares
1.58TD / 150.73
6.72TD att / 152.71
23%TD accuracy27%
80%TD defense81%
4:11Control / 151:59
0.07Sub att / 150.00
Targets
AndersTavares
Head68%|59%
Body26%|16%
Leg5%|24%
Position
AndersTavares
Distance56%|85%
Clinch24%|11%
Ground20%|3%
Ranking evolution Anders Tavares
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Eryk Anders
Eryk Anders carries the grappling-heavy case here: his ground control has been trending upward lately, his defense has tightened, and he brings a slight edge in getting the fight down, holding top position, and closing before the scorecards. His cardio over the distance and recent finishing momentum round out the picture. Fights southpaw, coming off a 7.1-month layoff.
Brad Tavares
Brad Tavares is the more seasoned Octagon veteran at 16-11 in the UFC, 21-13 overall. He last beat the No. 37-ranked opponent and has been out 6.2 months. An orthodox fighter with a deep résumé in the division.
Matchup Read
Anders's push to get the fight to the mat meets Tavares on the ground, where Anders's rising control and top pressure give him a reason to change levels rather than trade at range in this southpaw-orthodox setup. If he lands takedowns, his top game and improving positional work steer the fight. Should Tavares keep it standing and force distance exchanges, Anders's grappling case loses its footing and the fight opens up.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Anders can close distance and convert level changes into real top time, or Tavares forces him to strike.
- Early striking: who controls range in the southpaw-orthodox exchanges before any takedown attempts land.
- Late rounds: whether Anders's cardio edge shows as the pace holds or drops over the distance.
No UFC data yet
UFC debut · style profile after first fight
Style Matchup
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
STRIKING
Striking Initiative
P31
Volume
P41
Striking Efficiency
P51
Range Sniper
P40
Kickboxing
P63
Clinch Striking
P52
Defensive Striking
P12
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
Wrestling
P69
Pressure Wrestling
P66
Top Control
P70
Submission
P95
Anti-Wrestling
P77
Grappling Defense
P49
Scrambler
P73
DAMAGE / FINISHING
Power
P0
Finisher
P82
Damage Resistance
P52
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
Fast Starter
P87
Pace
P59
Late Fighter
P47
GLOBAL
Versatility
P48
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
SosaLacerda
—Landed / min4.02
—Absorbed / min5.79
—Accuracy46%
—Defense47%
—KD / 150.00
—KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
SosaLacerda
—TD / 152.29
—TD att / 155.49
—TD accuracy42%
—TD defense67%
—Control / 153:42
—Sub att / 150.91
Targets
SosaLacerda
Head—|45%
Body—|48%
Leg—|7%
Position
SosaLacerda
Distance—|84%
Clinch—|7%
Ground—|9%
Ranking evolution Sosa Lacerda
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Hecher Sosa
Hecher Sosa arrives on an 11-fight win streak and a 14-1 overall record, though built against modest regional opposition. He stands 5 cm taller than Lacerda, giving him some height to work with in the striking exchanges.
Luan Lacerda
Luan Lacerda's most meaningful weapon is his finishing threat once the fight hits the mat, and he's carried real finishing momentum through his recent bouts. He's 13-3 overall and 1-2 in the UFC, winning one of his last three there.
Matchup Read
Standing, Sosa's height offers him room to fight at range and keep the exchanges long. The floor is where things shift toward Lacerda, whose danger on the ground is the central threat here. That makes Sosa's ability to stay upright, or scramble back to his feet, the pivotal question. If Lacerda drags it down and settles into top position, his submission threat becomes the story; if Sosa keeps it standing, he dictates terms.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Lacerda can close distance and get the fight to the mat, or Sosa keeps it upright.
- Ground exchanges: if it does go down, how quickly Lacerda hunts for a finish versus how fast Sosa works back up.
- Striking range: whether Sosa uses his height to fight long and keep Lacerda at the end of his strikes.
Key Uncertainty
Sosa is making his UFC debut with no promotional history to draw on, so how his regional-built streak translates against this level of opposition remains the main unknown in reading the matchup.





















