← UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos
Manoel Sousa vs Bolaji Oki
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03-14
Manoel SousaLow Data
vs Bolaji Oki
66.4%
Model
72.0%
Market
1.34
Odds
-5.6
Edge (pp)
No UFC data yet
UFC debut · style profile after first fight
Style Matchup
provisional · 4 UFC fightsprovisional · 4 fights
STRIKING
Striking Initiative
P95
Volume
P97
Striking Efficiency
P74
Range Sniper
P88
Kickboxing
P73
Clinch Striking
P6
Defensive Striking
P84
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
Wrestling
P50
Pressure Wrestling
P8
Top Control
P20
Submission
P8
Anti-Wrestling
P27
Grappling Defense
P38
Scrambler
P24
DAMAGE / FINISHING
Power
P63
Finisher
P24
Damage Resistance
P41
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
Fast Starter
P89
Pace
P46
Late Fighter
P27
GLOBAL
Versatility
P47
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
SousaOki
—Landed / min6.26
—Absorbed / min5.21
—Accuracy43%
—Defense61%
—KD / 150.36
—KD abs / 150.36
Grappling / Wrestling
SousaOki
—TD / 151.07
—TD att / 151.79
—TD accuracy60%
—TD defense67%
—Control / 151:12
—Sub att / 150.00
Targets
SousaOki
Head—|74%
Body—|20%
Leg—|6%
Position
SousaOki
Distance—|95%
Clinch—|3%
Ground—|2%
Ranking evolution Sousa Oki
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Manoel Sousa
Manoel Sousa arrives on a 13-1 record and a two-fight win streak, carrying real finishing ability that lets him end fights before the judges. His most consistent threat is closing the show, and he brings a submission danger once the fight hits the mat. He hasn't been stopped in his recent outings.
Bolaji Oki
Bolaji Oki sits at 10-3 overall and 2-2 in the UFC, taking two of his last four there. He owns the physical dimensions here, an 8 cm reach advantage that gives him length to work behind. He's coming off 6.2 months out of action.
Matchup Read
The finishing pressure runs through Sousa: his ability to end things and his threat on the ground both matter most in the early and middle exchanges. Oki's 8 cm of reach lets him fight long and keep Sousa at the end of his strikes, where the debutant has to close space to bring his mat game and finishing into play. If Sousa gets it to the floor, his submission threat becomes the central danger. If Oki keeps it at range, distance decides it.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Oki can plant his jab and use the length to keep Sousa from closing the gap.
- Grappling: if Sousa gets top position, watch how quickly his submission threat forces scrambles or a stoppage.
- Finishing windows: whether Sousa presses for an early finish or Oki drags him into deeper water.
Key Uncertainty
Sousa enters on his UFC debut with no promotional history to read, so how his finishing and ground game translate against this level of opposition remains the main open question.