← UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos
Elijah Smith vs SuYoung You
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03-14
53.3%
Model
65.4%
Market
1.47
Odds
-12.1
Edge (pp)
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
STRIKING
P53
Striking Initiative
P31
P30
Volume
P13
P41
Striking Efficiency
P75
P9
Range Sniper
P15
P6
Kickboxing
P84
P32
Clinch Striking
P64
P39
Defensive Striking
P96
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P64
Wrestling
P69
P67
Pressure Wrestling
P70
P78
Top Control
P88
P31
Submission
P51
P77
Anti-Wrestling
P45
P27
Grappling Defense
P20
P91
Scrambler
P31
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P31
Power
P4
P49
Finisher
P12
P45
Damage Resistance
P58
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P66
Fast Starter
P46
P86
Pace
P51
P27
Late Fighter
P77
GLOBAL
P38
Versatility
P80
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
SmithYou
4.02Landed / min2.62
2.09Absorbed / min2.07
54%Accuracy52%
53%Defense72%
0.00KD / 150.00
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
SmithYou
2.35TD / 152.33
3.13TD att / 157.00
75%TD accuracy33%
40%TD defense0%
5:15Control / 154:16
0.78Sub att / 150.33
Targets
SmithYou
Head83%|68%
Body5%|16%
Leg12%|16%
Position
SmithYou
Distance49%|86%
Clinch4%|12%
Ground47%|3%
Ranking evolution Smith You
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Elijah Smith
Elijah Smith pairs real takedown ability with the defensive wrestling to keep things where he wants, and he carries a 15 cm reach advantage to work behind. His recent run has been built on finishes, with knockout power showing up across a 7-fight win streak and a 9-1 overall mark.
SuYoung You
SuYoung You comes in unbeaten through 3 UFC fights and 17-3 overall, riding a 5-fight win streak. His standout quality for this matchup is cardio: a gas tank that holds up over the distance and a pace he can sustain deep into the fight.
Matchup Read
The early and middle rounds tilt toward Smith's tools, his wrestling in both directions, the length he can fight behind, and the finishing power that has ended recent fights. You's path runs the other way, through time: the longer this goes, the more his durability and late-round pace matter. If Smith can't close early and You weathers the power, the grind of the later rounds becomes You's territory.
What to Watch
- Early rounds: whether Smith can use his reach and takedown threat to stack damage before fatigue sets in.
- Grappling exchanges: if Smith controls where the fight happens, or You forces scrambles and drags it into deep water.
- Late rounds: does You's pace hold up and pull the tempo into territory that favors him?
Key Uncertainty
With only 2 UFC fights on Smith's record, there's a limited sample against this level of competition, which makes his ceiling against a tested 17-fight opponent harder to pin down.