← UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos
Kevin Vallejos vs Josh Emmett
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03-14
76.3%
Model
80.1%
Market
1.20
Odds
-3.8
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
established · 16 UFC fightsestablished · 16 fights
STRIKING
P87
Striking Initiative
P31
P87
Volume
P64
P47
Striking Efficiency
P10
P74
Range Sniper
P52
P60
Kickboxing
P36
P43
Clinch Striking
P7
P66
Defensive Striking
P82
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P43
Wrestling
P40
P29
Pressure Wrestling
P38
P62
Top Control
P46
P16
Submission
P21
P43
Anti-Wrestling
P91
P74
Grappling Defense
P39
P30
Scrambler
P39
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P98
Power
P77
P77
Finisher
P6
P59
Damage Resistance
P85
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P31
Fast Starter
P11
P72
Pace
P29
P51
Late Fighter
P95
GLOBAL
P50
Versatility
P18
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
VallejosEmmett
5.03Landed / min3.72
3.94Absorbed / min4.42
43%Accuracy36%
58%Defense60%
1.22KD / 150.87
0.00KD abs / 150.14
Grappling / Wrestling
VallejosEmmett
1.22TD / 151.08
3.65TD att / 152.89
33%TD accuracy38%
89%TD defense44%
1:42Control / 151:13
0.00Sub att / 150.07
Targets
VallejosEmmett
Head63%|64%
Body26%|21%
Leg11%|15%
Position
VallejosEmmett
Distance88%|84%
Clinch8%|6%
Ground4%|10%
Ranking evolution Vallejos Emmett
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Kevin Vallejos
Kevin Vallejos rides a six-fight win streak and is 3-0 in the UFC, 17-1 overall, his last win coming over the No. 24-ranked opponent. He keeps fights standing when he wants and finishes them, with rising striking output and a gas tank that holds pace deep. His only loss came against modest regional opposition.
Josh Emmett
Josh Emmett owns a long resume, 19-6 overall and 10-6 in the UFC, with wins over ranked names including the No. 12-ranked opponent. His recent stretch has been thin, going 1-5 in his last five UFC fights. At 5 cm the longer man, he can work behind that reach.
Matchup Read
Standing, the fight favors Vallejos's climbing volume and finishing threat, while Emmett's reach gives him room to land power from the outside. If it stretches deep, Vallejos's cardio and pace become the story, and Emmett has to make his moments count early. Vallejos's ability to defend takedowns keeps exchanges where he wants them; Emmett's path runs through landing something heavy before the pace tells.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Emmett can plant behind his reach and connect clean before Vallejos ramps up his volume.
- Late rounds: if the fight passes ten minutes, watch whether Vallejos's pace pulls ahead as Emmett's output dips.
- Grappling: how often either man tries to change levels, and whether Vallejos keeps it standing on his terms.