← UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2
Youssef Zalal vs Josh Emmett
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10-04
81.1%
Model
75.8%
Market
1.27
Odds
+5.3
Edge (pp)
established · 10 UFC fightsestablished · 10 fights
Style Matchup
established · 15 UFC fightsestablished · 15 fights
STRIKING
P30
Striking Initiative
P33
P25
Volume
P65
P75
Striking Efficiency
P11
P52
Range Sniper
P53
P85
Kickboxing
P37
P14
Clinch Striking
P8
P97
Defensive Striking
P81
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P70
Wrestling
P41
P92
Pressure Wrestling
P37
P76
Top Control
P46
P89
Submission
P22
P80
Anti-Wrestling
P92
P34
Grappling Defense
P48
P94
Scrambler
P41
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P29
Power
P78
P73
Finisher
P8
P84
Damage Resistance
P85
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P91
Fast Starter
P17
P70
Pace
P29
P19
Late Fighter
P90
GLOBAL
P97
Versatility
P23
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
ZalalEmmett
2.93Landed / min3.75
1.80Absorbed / min4.46
53%Accuracy36%
67%Defense60%
0.25KD / 150.87
0.00KD abs / 150.15
Grappling / Wrestling
ZalalEmmett
2.22TD / 151.09
7.52TD att / 152.91
30%TD accuracy38%
56%TD defense47%
4:39Control / 151:12
1.36Sub att / 150.07
Targets
ZalalEmmett
Head62%|64%
Body16%|21%
Leg22%|15%
Position
ZalalEmmett
Distance88%|84%
Clinch6%|6%
Ground6%|10%
Ranking evolution Zalal Emmett
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Youssef Zalal
Youssef Zalal rides a 7-fight win streak, with his most recent win coming over the No. 17-ranked opponent. His grappling carries the weight here: strong top control, a real finishing threat once he gets it down, and submissions that have been showing up lately. His striking volume has been trending upward, and he owns a slight reach edge.
Josh Emmett
Josh Emmett brings a deep 19-5 record across all organizations, with his last win over the No. 12-ranked opponent. At 10-5 in the UFC, he's a tested veteran at this level, though his last five outings have gone 2/5.
Matchup Read
Zalal's most reliable path runs through the mat, where his top control and submission threat both come into play, so Emmett's ability to stay upright and force striking exchanges shapes the fight early. The longer this stays standing, the more Emmett's power exchanges matter, but every level change and scramble tilts the fight back toward Zalal's control and finishing threat. Zalal's rising output and slight edge in distance work give him tools to contest the striking rather than only chase takedowns.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Zalal can convert entries into sustained top position and hunt submissions from there.
- Early striking: whether Emmett can keep it upright and load up power shots before the fight hits the mat.
- Distance: whether Zalal uses his reach to manage range and add volume rather than only setting up level changes.