← UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos
Myktybek Orolbai vs Chris Curtis
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03-14
73.0%
Model
66.9%
Market
1.44
Odds
+6.2
Edge (pp)
limited sample · 5 UFC fightslimited · 5 fights
Style Matchup
established · 10 UFC fightsestablished · 10 fights
STRIKING
P22
Striking Initiative
P88
P15
Volume
P93
P32
Striking Efficiency
P97
P35
Range Sniper
P97
P19
Kickboxing
P96
P20
Clinch Striking
P29
P17
Defensive Striking
P61
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P97
Wrestling
P2
P96
Pressure Wrestling
P1
P92
Top Control
P4
P72
Submission
P9
P67
Anti-Wrestling
P99
P20
Grappling Defense
P97
P89
Scrambler
P36
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P86
Power
P53
P85
Finisher
P19
P50
Damage Resistance
P77
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P75
Fast Starter
P2
P87
Pace
P12
P44
Late Fighter
P96
GLOBAL
P44
Versatility
P24
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
OrolbaiCurtis
3.24Landed / min6.04
3.31Absorbed / min6.21
48%Accuracy50%
50%Defense55%
0.64KD / 150.34
0.32KD abs / 150.11
Grappling / Wrestling
OrolbaiCurtis
5.48TD / 150.00
11.92TD att / 150.11
46%TD accuracy0%
40%TD defense87%
6:35Control / 150:20
0.64Sub att / 150.00
Targets
OrolbaiCurtis
Head76%|70%
Body13%|26%
Leg11%|4%
Position
OrolbaiCurtis
Distance72%|92%
Clinch3%|7%
Ground25%|1%
Ranking evolution Orolbai Curtis
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Myktybek Orolbai
Orolbai brings a strong push to get the fight to the mat and the finishing ability to close once he's there, with four wins in his last five UFC outings and a two-fight streak. His stand-up defense and distance work hold up, and his chin has been reliable. Recent finishing momentum backs the threat.
Chris Curtis
Curtis, at 31-12 across all organizations, leans on the striking, where his volume and forward pressure give him a slight edge. His takedown defense stands out as the tool built to keep this fight in his preferred range. Two wins in his last five UFC fights.
Matchup Read
Orolbai's drive to get it down meets Curtis's takedown defense head-on, and that collision decides most of this. If Orolbai puts him on the mat, his top game and finishing ability become the central danger. Kept upright, Curtis's higher output and pressure take over, though Orolbai's distance management and durability give him tools to survive the striking and reset his entries.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Orolbai's level changes get through Curtis's takedown defense, or get stuffed against the fence.
- Early striking: whether Curtis can impose his volume and forward pressure before the fight hits the mat.
- Once grounded: how quickly Orolbai works toward a finish versus Curtis scrambling back to his feet.