← UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker
Myktybek Orolbai vs Jack Hermansson
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11-22
50.8%
Model
64.7%
Market
1.49
Odds
-13.9
Edge (pp)
provisional · 4 UFC fightsprovisional · 4 fights
Style Matchup
established · 18 UFC fightsestablished · 18 fights
STRIKING
P19
Striking Initiative
P89
P13
Volume
P83
P31
Striking Efficiency
P53
P25
Range Sniper
P26
P15
Kickboxing
P62
P19
Clinch Striking
P22
P18
Defensive Striking
P64
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P97
Wrestling
P53
P94
Pressure Wrestling
P61
P91
Top Control
P57
P74
Submission
P60
P65
Anti-Wrestling
P36
P20
Grappling Defense
P73
P89
Scrambler
P12
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P68
Power
P13
P80
Finisher
P51
P46
Damage Resistance
P39
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P88
Fast Starter
P64
P87
Pace
P88
P49
Late Fighter
P94
GLOBAL
P42
Versatility
P74
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
OrolbaiHermansson
3.11Landed / min5.13
3.08Absorbed / min3.70
48%Accuracy45%
50%Defense57%
0.34KD / 150.00
0.34KD abs / 150.30
Grappling / Wrestling
OrolbaiHermansson
5.82TD / 151.50
12.68TD att / 155.01
46%TD accuracy30%
40%TD defense81%
6:59Control / 152:37
0.69Sub att / 150.37
Targets
OrolbaiHermansson
Head78%|57%
Body12%|20%
Leg10%|24%
Position
OrolbaiHermansson
Distance71%|77%
Clinch3%|7%
Ground26%|15%
Ranking evolution Orolbai Hermansson
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Myktybek Orolbai
Orolbai gets the fight to the mat reliably and hunts finishes once he's there, carrying a strong finishing rate over his recent run. He's held up well against damage lately and hasn't been stopped in his recent fights, sitting on a 3-1 UFC mark and a 14-2 record overall.
Jack Hermansson
Hermansson defends takedowns well and keeps fights standing, where his slightly higher striking volume and pressure come into play. He owns an 8 cm reach edge and the deeper résumé at 24-9 overall, with a recent win over the No. 25-ranked opponent, though he's gone 2/5 in his last five UFC bouts.
Matchup Read
Orolbai's early finishing danger meets Hermansson's takedown defense, and that clash sets the terms. If Orolbai gets it down, his submission and ground-and-pound threat grows sharp; if Hermansson keeps it standing behind his reach and volume, the fight shifts toward extended striking exchanges where his pressure builds. The central question is whether Orolbai's level changes beat the takedown defense that would keep this a longer striking affair.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Orolbai's level changes get through or Hermansson stuffs them and resets standing.
- Early rounds: if Orolbai secures top position, watch how quickly he threatens the finish.
- Striking: whether Hermansson uses his 8 cm reach to keep range and stack volume as the fight stretches.