FIGHTintelligence
UFC predictions & fighter analytics
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Winning bet Losing bet No bet · win No bet · loss
-9.31%
ROI
−0.6u
Gain
66.7%
Accuracy
10
Fights
▼
AIDelgado owns the fresher form and physical frame, but Silva holds the sharper matchup-specific tools where i…
51.2%
Model
78.3%
Market
1.23
Odds
-27.1
Edge (pp)
▼
Striking Efficiency · Range
limited sample · 7 UFC fightslimited · 7 fights
Style Matchup
Striking Efficiency · Range
limited sample · 5 UFC fightslimited · 5 fights
STRIKING
P74
Striking Initiative
P97
P76
Volume
P93
P99
Striking Efficiency
P97
P100
Range Sniper
P94
P97
Kickboxing
P93
P66
Clinch Striking
P60
P48
Defensive Striking
P43
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P57
Wrestling
P21
P25
Pressure Wrestling
P33
P4
Top Control
P22
P48
Submission
P32
P87
Anti-Wrestling
P31
P79
Grappling Defense
P31
P38
Scrambler
P23
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P98
Power
P90
P91
Finisher
P75
P50
Damage Resistance
P60
FIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P50
Fast Starter
P97
P10
Pace
P60
P28
Late Fighter
P43
GLOBAL
P90
Versatility
P42
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Fight page →
Striking
SilvaDelgado
4.57Landed / min6.05
4.44Absorbed / min4.17
53%Accuracy55%
53%Defense53%
1.25KD / 151.24
0.25KD abs / 150.31
Grappling / Wrestling
SilvaDelgado
1.25TD / 150.62
1.75TD att / 152.79
71%TD accuracy22%
78%TD defense59%
0:19Control / 151:17
0.75Sub att / 150.00
Targets
SilvaDelgado
Head65%|59%
Body27%|29%
Leg8%|12%
Position
SilvaDelgado
Distance84%|79%
Clinch12%|10%
Ground4%|11%
Ranking evolution Silva Delgado
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Jean Silva
Jean Silva brings his grappling to the fore in this one, with the stronger tools to drag the fight to the mat and a live submission threat once it gets there. His UFC record sits at 6-1 with wins in four of his last five, his only recent loss coming against the No. 5-ranked opponent.
Jose Delgado
Jose Delgado carries a 13 cm reach and 10 cm height advantage, working from a switch stance that lets him vary his looks. His striking output and pressure edge him standing, and his recent durability holds up well. He rides a 2-fight streak with no recent finish loss on his record.
Matchup Read
Delgado owns the fresher form and physical frame, but Silva holds the sharper matchup-specific tools where it counts. The fight splits cleanly: Delgado wants to use his length and volume to keep it standing over five rounds, while Silva's route runs through level changes and his submission threat on the mat. Delgado's recent durability raises the bar for Silva's ground finishing. Whoever dictates where it takes place shapes the outcome.
What to Watch
  • Early striking: whether Delgado can keep Silva at the end of his reach and stack up volume before the level changes come.
  • Grappling: how often Silva completes his entries, and whether Delgado's chin and frame let him work back up.
  • Late rounds: over five, whether Delgado's pressure holds or Silva's mat time starts stacking control.
AIMoreno's takedown defense meets Morales's push to control on the mat and hunt finishes. If Moreno keeps it s…
69.1%
Model
44.6%
Market
2.16
Odds
+24.5
Edge (pp)
▼
Striking Defense
established · 18 UFC fightsestablished · 18 fights
Style Matchup
Submission
limited sample · 5 UFC fightslimited · 5 fights
STRIKING
P46
Striking Initiative
P4
P60
Volume
P9
P52
Striking Efficiency
P5
P44
Range Sniper
P19
P64
Kickboxing
P5
P12
Clinch Striking
P65
P91
Defensive Striking
P62
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P50
Wrestling
P47
P42
Pressure Wrestling
P28
P58
Top Control
P23
P80
Submission
P96
P97
Anti-Wrestling
P11
P84
Grappling Defense
P3
P61
Scrambler
P84
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P18
Power
P39
P56
Finisher
P60
P73
Damage Resistance
P29
FIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P32
Fast Starter
P39
P50
Pace
P13
P77
Late Fighter
P25
GLOBAL
P93
Versatility
P13
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Fight page →
Striking
MorenoMorales
3.80Landed / min2.00
3.57Absorbed / min2.05
44%Accuracy41%
62%Defense58%
0.15KD / 150.38
0.25KD abs / 150.38
Grappling / Wrestling
MorenoMorales
1.30TD / 151.14
3.44TD att / 152.66
38%TD accuracy43%
67%TD defense27%
2:35Control / 152:33
0.45Sub att / 153.04
Targets
MorenoMorales
Head72%|63%
Body16%|29%
Leg11%|8%
Position
MorenoMorales
Distance88%|56%
Clinch6%|14%
Ground6%|30%
Ranking evolution Moreno Morales
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Brandon Moreno
Brandon Moreno's most consistent asset here is his takedown defense, keeping exchanges standing when he wants them there. Across all organizations he sits at 23-11, with a recent win over the No. 9-ranked opponent showing he can still beat quality flyweights, though his UFC run reads 2 wins in his last 5.
Joseph Morales
Joseph Morales rides a 2-fight streak and a 14-4 all-orgs record, winning 3 of his last 5 in the UFC. His striking output and top control have both been trending upward, and he pairs recent finishing momentum with a live submission threat. He's also shown he can scramble off his back and get up.
Matchup Read
Moreno's takedown defense meets Morales's push to control on the mat and hunt finishes. If Moreno keeps it standing, he takes away the top game and submission threat that carry Morales's recent momentum. If Morales does get it down, his ability to work back up if reversed keeps him in control of where the fight lives. The ground exchanges, and whether they happen at all, decide this over three rounds.
What to Watch
  • Grappling: whether Morales can plant Moreno on the mat or gets stuffed and forced to strike.
  • Ground scrambles: if it hits the floor, watch who wins the reversals and gets back to the feet.
  • Late rounds: whether Morales's rising volume shows up in round three as the pace holds.
AIRahiki carries the early finishing danger, while McMillen's pressure and durability grow in value the longer…
76.2%
Model
42.3%
Market
2.28
Odds
+33.9
Edge (pp)
▼
Volume · Initiative
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
Style Matchup
Volume · Initiative
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
STRIKING
P98
Striking Initiative
P100
P96
Volume
P100
P96
Striking Efficiency
P95
P97
Range Sniper
P91
P96
Kickboxing
P89
P19
Clinch Striking
P18
P66
Defensive Striking
P83
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P22
Wrestling
P22
P8
Pressure Wrestling
P1
P61
Top Control
P51
P11
Submission
P53
P50
Anti-Wrestling
P52
P69
Grappling Defense
P68
P33
Scrambler
P33
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P96
Power
P90
P85
Finisher
P78
P50
Damage Resistance
P51
FIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P23
Fast Starter
P66
P46
Pace
P53
—
Late Fighter
P29
GLOBAL
P62
Versatility
P62
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Fight page →
Striking
RahikiMcMillen
8.76Landed / min18.70
5.79Absorbed / min4.36
55%Accuracy50%
59%Defense63%
1.17KD / 152.58
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
RahikiMcMillen
0.00TD / 150.00
0.00TD att / 150.00
—TD accuracy—
100%TD defense—
1:56Control / 150:54
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
RahikiMcMillen
Head66%|72%
Body18%|23%
Leg16%|5%
Position
RahikiMcMillen
Distance96%|91%
Clinch2%|6%
Ground3%|3%
Ranking evolution Rahiki McMillen
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Marwan Rahiki
Marwan Rahiki arrives unbeaten at 9-0, 2-0 in the UFC, riding a nine-fight win streak built on modest regional opposition. His most useful trait for this matchup is a knack for closing the show before the scorecards, giving him a route to end things early.
Tommy McMillen
Tommy McMillen is 11-0 overall and 2-0 in the UFC, carrying an eleven-fight win streak. He brings the higher output and forward pressure on the feet, real finishing danger once the fight hits the ground, and slightly sharper distance work behind a 5 cm reach advantage. His chin has held up well.
Matchup Read
Rahiki carries the early finishing danger, while McMillen's pressure and durability grow in value the longer this goes. McMillen's volume and length let him work behind his jab and dictate range, and his ground threat means Rahiki should be wary of exchanges that hit the mat. Rahiki's clearest path is to force a decisive moment early; if McMillen weathers that and stacks rounds, his output and finishing on the ground become the story.
What to Watch
  • Early striking: whether Rahiki can crack McMillen's range and land something decisive before the pace settles.
  • Range battle: how often McMillen's jab and 5 cm reach keep Rahiki fighting on the outside.
  • Ground exchanges: if the fight hits the mat, whether Rahiki can avoid McMillen's finishing threat from top.
Key Uncertainty
Both men are unbeaten but have only two UFC fights each against modest opposition, so how their tools hold up at this level remains largely untested.
AIThe central collision is early versus late: Cortes Acosta carries the knockout threat and finishing momentum…
59.9%
Model
63.4%
Market
1.52
Odds
-3.5
Edge (pp)
▼
Volume · Initiative
established · 13 UFC fightsestablished · 13 fights
Style Matchup
Top Control · Wrestling
established · 20 UFC fightsestablished · 20 fights
STRIKING
P93
Striking Initiative
P51
P93
Volume
P24
P85
Striking Efficiency
P38
P84
Range Sniper
P11
P80
Kickboxing
P15
P2
Clinch Striking
P96
P56
Defensive Striking
P25
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P25
Wrestling
P98
P7
Pressure Wrestling
P92
P37
Top Control
P97
P19
Submission
P4
P45
Anti-Wrestling
P55
P86
Grappling Defense
P18
P4
Scrambler
P28
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P77
Power
P57
P37
Finisher
P51
P96
Damage Resistance
P18
FIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P55
Fast Starter
P55
P48
Pace
P98
P85
Late Fighter
P69
GLOBAL
P67
Versatility
P69
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Fight page →
Striking
AcostaBlaydes
5.18Landed / min4.18
3.61Absorbed / min2.84
49%Accuracy52%
55%Defense54%
0.61KD / 150.16
0.00KD abs / 150.40
Grappling / Wrestling
AcostaBlaydes
0.41TD / 154.64
0.82TD att / 1510.24
50%TD accuracy45%
74%TD defense35%
1:25Control / 156:37
0.10Sub att / 150.00
Targets
AcostaBlaydes
Head71%|73%
Body15%|11%
Leg14%|15%
Position
AcostaBlaydes
Distance88%|54%
Clinch3%|18%
Ground9%|28%
Ranking evolution Acosta Blaydes
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Cortes Acosta owns real knockout power and has been finishing fights lately, carrying clear stopping momentum into this one. His takedown defense is a strength, letting him keep exchanges standing, and his work from top position has been trending upward. His last win came against the No. 14-ranked opponent.
Curtis Blaydes
Blaydes brings a strong push to drag fights to the mat, backed by a 5 cm reach advantage. His striking volume has been climbing recently, and his output has held steady without recent decline. He carries a deep 19-6 record across all organizations.
Matchup Read
The central collision is early versus late: Cortes Acosta carries the knockout threat and finishing momentum that make the opening minutes dangerous, while Blaydes wants to change levels and get this to the mat, where his top game grinds across three rounds. That runs straight into Cortes Acosta's takedown defense. If he stays upright, his power dictates; if Blaydes lands entries, his control and rising volume take over.
What to Watch
  • Early striking: whether Cortes Acosta can plant his feet and load up his power before Blaydes closes distance.
  • Grappling: whether Blaydes' level changes get through, or Cortes Acosta stuffs them and resets standing.
  • Late rounds: if it hits the mat, whether Cortes Acosta scrambles back up or Blaydes rides top control through the third.
AIThe standing exchanges tilt toward Ige's length, where his reach and frame let him work behind the jab and k…
82.6%
Model
72.9%
Market
1.32
Odds
+9.7
Edge (pp)
▼
Striking Defense
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
Style Matchup
Durability
established · 21 UFC fightsestablished · 21 fights
STRIKING
P93
Striking Initiative
P36
P85
Volume
P52
P69
Striking Efficiency
P55
P58
Range Sniper
P64
P80
Kickboxing
P60
P21
Clinch Striking
P23
P98
Defensive Striking
P62
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P31
Wrestling
P20
P26
Pressure Wrestling
P31
P51
Top Control
P27
P3
Submission
P46
P60
Anti-Wrestling
P63
P83
Grappling Defense
P35
P29
Scrambler
P64
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P86
Power
P48
P58
Finisher
P30
P60
Damage Resistance
P85
FIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P74
Fast Starter
P35
P56
Pace
P29
P62
Late Fighter
P25
GLOBAL
P69
Versatility
P30
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Fight page →
Striking
MartinezIge
4.62Landed / min3.58
2.83Absorbed / min3.67
46%Accuracy45%
70%Defense56%
0.43KD / 150.40
0.00KD abs / 150.17
Grappling / Wrestling
MartinezIge
0.87TD / 150.75
3.03TD att / 153.40
29%TD accuracy22%
100%TD defense57%
1:17Control / 151:46
0.00Sub att / 150.06
Targets
MartinezIge
Head64%|65%
Body17%|23%
Leg19%|12%
Position
MartinezIge
Distance89%|78%
Clinch4%|8%
Ground7%|14%
Ranking evolution Martinez Ige
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
David Martinez
David Martinez arrives on a 10-fight win streak and a perfect 3-0 UFC start, with his last win coming over the No. 12-ranked opponent. His game centers on wrestling both ways, mixing takedowns with the ability to keep it standing when he chooses, and he carries real finishing power. Durable in recent outings.
Dan Ige
Dan Ige owns the physical measurements here, roughly 10 cm of reach and 5 cm of height on Martinez, length he can use to fight at range. He's 11-10 in the UFC with 18-11 across all organizations, and has gone 1-for-5 in his last five UFC appearances, his most recent win over the No. 26-ranked opponent.
Matchup Read
The standing exchanges tilt toward Ige's length, where his reach and frame let him work behind the jab and keep Martinez at the end of his punches. The grappling flips it: Martinez can change levels to close that distance, and his edge in getting fights down and controlling where they take place neutralizes the range. Whether Ige keeps it at kicking distance or Martinez drags it into the clinch and to the mat decides the night.
What to Watch
  • Distance battle: watch whether Ige can pin Martinez to the end of his jab or Martinez keeps closing the gap.
  • Grappling: track Martinez's level changes and whether his takedown entries land against Ige's length.
  • Finishing: Martinez carries stopping power across three rounds, so watch how the fight holds up if it stays standing late.
AIStanding and on the mat, the tools favor Elliott: his stand-up and his level changes into top control give h…
58.5%
Model
66.0%
Market
1.46
Odds
-7.5
Edge (pp)
▼
Submission
limited sample · 6 UFC fightslimited · 6 fights
Style Matchup
Pace · Top Control · Wrestling Pressure
established · 22 UFC fightsestablished · 22 fights
STRIKING
P34
Striking Initiative
P71
P69
Volume
P49
P81
Striking Efficiency
P17
P100
Range Sniper
P13
P91
Kickboxing
P17
P12
Clinch Striking
P70
P9
Defensive Striking
P57
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P5
Wrestling
P94
P2
Pressure Wrestling
P75
P1
Top Control
P67
P94
Submission
P71
P26
Anti-Wrestling
P66
P12
Grappling Defense
P36
P44
Scrambler
P91
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P67
Power
P10
P94
Finisher
P20
P80
Damage Resistance
P99
FIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P30
Fast Starter
P96
P2
Pace
P91
P63
Late Fighter
P56
GLOBAL
P29
Versatility
P54
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Fight page →
Striking
ChairezElliott
3.91Landed / min3.51
4.81Absorbed / min3.00
47%Accuracy43%
45%Defense56%
0.83KD / 150.11
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
ChairezElliott
0.00TD / 153.61
0.56TD att / 157.95
0%TD accuracy45%
46%TD defense59%
0:26Control / 154:29
1.67Sub att / 151.06
Targets
ChairezElliott
Head63%|58%
Body18%|20%
Leg18%|23%
Position
ChairezElliott
Distance95%|66%
Clinch2%|16%
Ground3%|18%
Ranking evolution Chairez Elliott
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Edgar Chairez
Edgar Chairez rides a 3-fight win streak and has taken 4 of his last 5 UFC bouts to a 4-2 promotional mark. His most consistent asset is finishing ability, closing fights before the scorecards, and he carries a 13 cm reach advantage that gives him length to work behind. His defense has also been trending upward recently.
Tim Elliott
Tim Elliott brings the deeper resume at 21-18 overall, with a recent win over the No. 14-ranked opponent. The matchup favors his boxing and distance work, his ability to change levels and drag the fight to the mat, and his control once on top. He also holds the sturdier chin for absorbing damage.
Matchup Read
Standing and on the mat, the tools favor Elliott: his stand-up and his level changes into top control give him routes to grind out three rounds. Chairez's counter is his finishing ability, and against a durable opponent that danger has to come from creating his own space. His length and reach let him fight at distance and discourage the entries, but if Elliett closes and gets him down, escaping the control becomes the whole fight.
What to Watch
  • Grappling: whether Elliott gets his level changes in or Chairez uses his reach to keep the fight at range.
  • Ground control: if it hits the mat, how long Elliott holds top position versus Chairez working back up.
  • Finishing window: whether Chairez can hurt a durable opponent before the fight settles into a grind.
AISalikhov brings the longer, more stable track record, but the matchup-specific tools lean toward Bahamondes'…
69.1%
Model
81.1%
Market
1.19
Odds
-11.9
Edge (pp)
▼
Volume · Initiative
established · 10 UFC fightsestablished · 10 fights
Style Matchup
Striking Defense
established · 14 UFC fightsestablished · 14 fights
STRIKING
P97
Striking Initiative
P40
P99
Volume
P46
P75
Striking Efficiency
P83
P89
Range Sniper
P78
P87
Kickboxing
P94
P22
Clinch Striking
P23
P64
Defensive Striking
P97
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P1
Wrestling
P35
P20
Pressure Wrestling
P34
P12
Top Control
P19
P36
Submission
P10
P62
Anti-Wrestling
P32
P44
Grappling Defense
P53
P39
Scrambler
P7
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P83
Power
P90
P66
Finisher
P74
P93
Damage Resistance
P24
FIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P66
Fast Starter
P35
P49
Pace
P13
P47
Late Fighter
P70
GLOBAL
P17
Versatility
P69
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Fight page →
Striking
BahamondesSalikhov
5.80Landed / min3.37
4.16Absorbed / min2.96
46%Accuracy50%
55%Defense62%
0.67KD / 150.59
0.00KD abs / 150.36
Grappling / Wrestling
BahamondesSalikhov
0.00TD / 151.07
1.21TD att / 153.32
0%TD accuracy32%
66%TD defense72%
1:02Control / 150:59
0.67Sub att / 150.00
Targets
BahamondesSalikhov
Head55%|53%
Body23%|29%
Leg22%|18%
Position
BahamondesSalikhov
Distance88%|84%
Clinch6%|7%
Ground5%|10%
Ranking evolution Bahamondes Salikhov
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Ignacio Bahamondes
Bahamondes fights long, using a 13cm reach advantage and a taller frame to work at distance. His striking defense has tightened up recently, he's shown solid damage absorption, and he carries a real submission threat if the fight hits the mat. His last win came against the No. 18-ranked opponent, and he's 3/5 across his last five UFC outings.
Muslim Salikhov
Salikhov, 13 years the older man, has kept his performances steady with no recent slide in level, going 3/5 across his last five UFC fights with a 22-6 overall mark. His striking output has been climbing lately. He last beat the No. 23-ranked opponent and has been out for over 10 months.
Matchup Read
Salikhov brings the longer, more stable track record, but the matchup-specific tools lean toward Bahamondes' length. The taller man can fight behind his reach and keep exchanges at range, where Salikhov's rising volume needs to close the gap to land. If it hits the floor, Bahamondes' submission threat becomes the central danger. Salikhov's task is to work inside the reach and turn it into a firefight over three rounds.
What to Watch
  • Early striking: whether Salikhov can close the reach gap and get his volume off, or gets kept at the end of Bahamondes' range.
  • Grappling: any trip to the mat brings Bahamondes' submission threat into play.
  • Late rounds: whether the pace over three rounds favors the man forcing exchanges inside.
AIBelgaroui's range striking and reach meet Santos's push to make this a grappling fight, and that collision d…
85.1%
Model
84.4%
Market
1.14
Odds
+0.7
Edge (pp)
▼
Volume · Initiative
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
Style Matchup
Volume · Initiative
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
STRIKING
P100
Striking Initiative
P88
P100
Volume
P97
P100
Striking Efficiency
P59
P97
Range Sniper
P70
P99
Kickboxing
P68
P67
Clinch Striking
P10
P96
Defensive Striking
P21
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P43
Wrestling
P17
P14
Pressure Wrestling
P8
P14
Top Control
P31
P1
Submission
P34
P14
Anti-Wrestling
P42
P26
Grappling Defense
P59
P31
Scrambler
P25
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P95
Power
P6
P73
Finisher
P26
P46
Damage Resistance
P75
FIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P84
Fast Starter
P5
P56
Pace
P41
P23
Late Fighter
P75
GLOBAL
P61
Versatility
P20
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Fight page →
Striking
BelgarouiSantos
7.98Landed / min6.97
1.63Absorbed / min7.58
67%Accuracy40%
71%Defense48%
1.22KD / 150.00
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
BelgarouiSantos
0.61TD / 150.34
0.61TD att / 151.70
100%TD accuracy20%
56%TD defense80%
1:00Control / 150:55
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
BelgarouiSantos
Head65%|84%
Body20%|8%
Leg15%|8%
Position
BelgarouiSantos
Distance86%|96%
Clinch11%|3%
Ground3%|1%
Ranking evolution Belgaroui Santos
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Yousri Belgaroui
Belgaroui comes in on a five-fight winning streak and 2-0 in the UFC, with the sharper work at range: clean distance management, a reliable chin, and a long, rangy frame he can fight behind. His recent run carries finishing momentum, and none of his recent losses came by stoppage.
Djorden Santos
Santos sits at 1-2 in the UFC with a 11-3 mark across all organizations. His most meaningful weapon here is his finishing threat once the fight hits the mat, where he can hunt for submissions and end exchanges.
Matchup Read
Belgaroui's range striking and reach meet Santos's push to make this a grappling fight, and that collision decides it. If Belgaroui keeps it standing behind his length and solid chin, he controls where the action lives. Santos's path runs through closing that distance and dragging the fight down, where his finishing threat on the mat becomes real. The 10 cm reach gap gives Belgaroui room to fight on the outside and deny clean entries.
What to Watch
  • Early striking: whether Belgaroui uses his length to keep Santos at the end of his punches and off his entries.
  • Grappling: how often Santos can close distance and get the fight to the floor, where his submission hunting lives.
  • Across three rounds: whether the fight stays standing or repeatedly resets on the mat.
Key Uncertainty
With only two UFC fights on Belgaroui's record, there is a limited book on how his range game and durability hold up against a step up in competition.
Tommy GanttLow Data
AIGantt's takedown defense and top control meet Klose's push to dictate where the fight happens. If Gantt keep…
78.8%
Model
80.3%
Market
1.20
Odds
-1.5
Edge (pp)
▼
Pace · Top Control · Wrestling Pressure
provisional · 1 UFC fightsprovisional · 1 fights
Style Matchup
Clinch Striking
established · 13 UFC fightsestablished · 13 fights
STRIKING
P40
Striking Initiative
P69
P4
Volume
P48
P17
Striking Efficiency
P81
P1
Range Sniper
P52
P1
Kickboxing
P69
P77
Clinch Striking
P100
P40
Defensive Striking
P13
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P83
Wrestling
P52
P100
Pressure Wrestling
P65
P98
Top Control
P61
P40
Submission
P3
P41
Anti-Wrestling
P56
P62
Grappling Defense
P55
P36
Scrambler
P56
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P31
Power
P44
P67
Finisher
P4
P40
Damage Resistance
P58
FIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
—
Fast Starter
P59
P96
Pace
P74
—
Late Fighter
P72
GLOBAL
P39
Versatility
P65
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Fight page →
Striking
GanttKlose
3.57Landed / min4.25
1.02Absorbed / min3.65
74%Accuracy55%
38%Defense49%
0.00KD / 150.20
0.00KD abs / 150.20
Grappling / Wrestling
GanttKlose
11.46TD / 151.49
32.48TD att / 155.56
35%TD accuracy27%
100%TD defense69%
10:02Control / 153:32
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
GanttKlose
Head68%|53%
Body32%|28%
Leg0%|19%
Position
GanttKlose
Distance11%|59%
Clinch36%|33%
Ground54%|8%
Ranking evolution Gantt Klose
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Tommy Gantt
Tommy Gantt rides a perfect 12-0 across all organizations and won his UFC debut, with a track record of ending fights early. His grappling stands out: he defends takedowns well, controls from top position, and threatens finishes. A 15 cm reach advantage lets him work behind his length, and his distance management gives him a modest striking edge.
Drakkar Klose
Drakkar Klose brings the deeper UFC résumé at 10-3, winning four of his last five in the promotion, including a victory over the No. 46-ranked opponent, and his last loss came against the No. 29-ranked opponent. His experience against tougher competition is his most meaningful advantage here. He's been out for over a year.
Matchup Read
Gantt's takedown defense and top control meet Klose's push to dictate where the fight happens. If Gantt keeps it standing behind his reach, he manages distance and carries the finishing threat; if it hits the mat, his top game becomes the story. Klose's counter is his proven level against sharper opposition, which matters most if the fight stretches deep and turns on ring generalship rather than raw output.
What to Watch
  • Grappling exchanges: whether Gantt stuffs entries and turns them into top position, or Klose reverses the script.
  • Range: how well Gantt uses his 15 cm reach to keep the fight at his distance in the stand-up.
  • Late rounds: whether Klose's experience against better opposition shows as the third round approaches.
Key Uncertainty
Reading this one is complicated by Gantt having just a single UFC fight on record and Klose returning from a layoff of nearly 13 months, leaving both fighters' current form partly untested at this level.
AIRongzhu's rising volume and pressure give him the early edge at range, where his height helps him work behin…
53.5%
Model
40.7%
Market
2.36
Odds
+12.8
Edge (pp)
▼
53.5%46.5%
Wrestling Pressure · Wrestling
established · 11 UFC fightsestablished · 11 fights
Style Matchup
Striking Efficiency · Range
limited sample · 6 UFC fightslimited · 6 fights
STRIKING
P52
Striking Initiative
P72
P57
Volume
P69
P55
Striking Efficiency
P93
P50
Range Sniper
P86
P57
Kickboxing
P88
P55
Clinch Striking
P4
P81
Defensive Striking
P42
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P91
Wrestling
P70
P88
Pressure Wrestling
P65
P81
Top Control
P73
P65
Submission
P35
P85
Anti-Wrestling
P90
P92
Grappling Defense
P84
P51
Scrambler
P51
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P9
Power
P74
P29
Finisher
P66
P80
Damage Resistance
P87
FIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P38
Fast Starter
P3
P75
Pace
P53
P77
Late Fighter
P87
GLOBAL
P98
Versatility
P94
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Fight page →
Striking
GarciaRongzhu
4.28Landed / min5.60
4.42Absorbed / min5.78
44%Accuracy50%
61%Defense54%
0.10KD / 150.37
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
GarciaRongzhu
3.22TD / 151.86
7.05TD att / 152.98
46%TD accuracy63%
77%TD defense83%
3:16Control / 152:26
0.40Sub att / 150.00
Targets
GarciaRongzhu
Head79%|76%
Body13%|12%
Leg8%|11%
Position
GarciaRongzhu
Distance85%|88%
Clinch10%|2%
Ground5%|10%
Ranking evolution Garcia Rongzhu
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Rafa Garcia
Rafa Garcia comes in on a three-fight winning streak with his finishing coming more sharply into focus lately, including real pop on his recent knockouts. His grappling is where he's trending up: his top control has been rising, and he's shown he can scramble off his back and get the fight standing again. He's also been tested against stronger opposition.
Rongzhu
Rongzhu carries a deep 28-6 overall record and his own three-fight run. His edge in this matchup sits in the striking, where his output and forward pressure have been climbing recently. At 5 cm taller, he has the frame to work behind his jab and keep exchanges at range.
Matchup Read
Rongzhu's rising volume and pressure give him the early edge at range, where his height helps him work behind long strikes. Garcia's counter is to close distance and turn it into a grappling fight: his improving top control and ability to climb back to his feet matter more the longer it stays physical. The central question is whether Rongzhu can keep it at kickboxing range or whether Garcia drags it into the clinch and onto the mat.
What to Watch
  • Early striking: whether Rongzhu can establish his jab and volume at range before Garcia closes the gap.
  • Grappling: how quickly Garcia changes levels, and whether he can hold top position once it hits the mat.
  • Scrambles: if Rongzhu reverses or stands back up, or Garcia keeps him pinned across three rounds.
Key Uncertainty
Rongzhu returns from 12.6 months out, a longer-than-usual layoff that adds some question to how his rising striking rhythm holds up against live resistance.