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Marwan Rahiki vs Tommy McMillen
Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · 2026-09-12
76.2%
Model
42.3%
Market
2.28
Odds
+33.9
Edge (pp)
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
STRIKING
P98
Striking Initiative
P100
P96
Volume
P100
P96
Striking Efficiency
P95
P97
Range Sniper
P91
P96
Kickboxing
P89
P19
Clinch Striking
P18
P66
Defensive Striking
P83
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P22
Wrestling
P22
P8
Pressure Wrestling
P1
P61
Top Control
P51
P11
Submission
P53
P50
Anti-Wrestling
P52
P69
Grappling Defense
P68
P33
Scrambler
P33
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P96
Power
P90
P85
Finisher
P78
P50
Damage Resistance
P51
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P23
Fast Starter
P66
P46
Pace
P53
—
Late Fighter
P29
GLOBAL
P62
Versatility
P62
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
RahikiMcMillen
8.76Landed / min18.70
5.79Absorbed / min4.36
55%Accuracy50%
59%Defense63%
1.17KD / 152.58
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
RahikiMcMillen
0.00TD / 150.00
0.00TD att / 150.00
—TD accuracy—
100%TD defense—
1:56Control / 150:54
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
RahikiMcMillen
Head66%|72%
Body18%|23%
Leg16%|5%
Position
RahikiMcMillen
Distance96%|91%
Clinch2%|6%
Ground3%|3%
Ranking evolution Rahiki McMillen
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Marwan Rahiki
Marwan Rahiki arrives unbeaten at 9-0, 2-0 in the UFC, riding a nine-fight win streak built on modest regional opposition. His most useful trait for this matchup is a knack for closing the show before the scorecards, giving him a route to end things early.
Tommy McMillen
Tommy McMillen is 11-0 overall and 2-0 in the UFC, carrying an eleven-fight win streak. He brings the higher output and forward pressure on the feet, real finishing danger once the fight hits the ground, and slightly sharper distance work behind a 5 cm reach advantage. His chin has held up well.
Matchup Read
Rahiki carries the early finishing danger, while McMillen's pressure and durability grow in value the longer this goes. McMillen's volume and length let him work behind his jab and dictate range, and his ground threat means Rahiki should be wary of exchanges that hit the mat. Rahiki's clearest path is to force a decisive moment early; if McMillen weathers that and stacks rounds, his output and finishing on the ground become the story.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Rahiki can crack McMillen's range and land something decisive before the pace settles.
- Range battle: how often McMillen's jab and 5 cm reach keep Rahiki fighting on the outside.
- Ground exchanges: if the fight hits the mat, whether Rahiki can avoid McMillen's finishing threat from top.
Key Uncertainty
Both men are unbeaten but have only two UFC fights each against modest opposition, so how their tools hold up at this level remains largely untested.