← UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
Tommy McMillen vs Alberto Montes
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · 2026-07-18
Tommy McMillenLow Data
65.7%
Model
54.2%
Market
1.78
Odds
+11.4
Edge (pp)
provisional · 1 UFC fightsprovisional · 1 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 1 UFC fightsprovisional · 1 fights
STRIKING
P100
Striking Initiative
P93
P100
Volume
P90
P99
Striking Efficiency
P100
P98
Range Sniper
P87
P95
Kickboxing
P99
P53
Clinch Striking
P74
P72
Defensive Striking
P73
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P29
Wrestling
P29
P0
Pressure Wrestling
P1
P5
Top Control
P5
P49
Submission
P96
P43
Anti-Wrestling
P5
P51
Grappling Defense
P59
P35
Scrambler
P34
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P90
Power
P1
P64
Finisher
P49
P40
Damage Resistance
P40
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P49
Fast Starter
P22
P44
Pace
P14
—
Late Fighter
—
GLOBAL
P55
Versatility
P70
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
McMillenMontes
18.73Landed / min5.65
5.06Absorbed / min3.88
55%Accuracy55%
67%Defense63%
3.80KD / 150.00
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
McMillenMontes
0.00TD / 150.00
0.00TD att / 150.00
—TD accuracy—
—TD defense100%
0:23Control / 150:56
0.00Sub att / 152.65
Targets
McMillenMontes
Head69%|59%
Body31%|31%
Leg0%|9%
Position
McMillenMontes
Distance84%|81%
Clinch12%|19%
Ground4%|0%
Ranking evolution McMillen Montes
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Tommy McMillen
Tommy McMillen comes in unbeaten at 10-0, riding a 10-fight win streak after taking his UFC debut. His game runs on striking volume and forward pressure, with the power to close out fights early rather than leave it to the judges. He carries a notable size advantage, 13 cm of both reach and height, and shows solid work managing range and absorbing return fire.
Alberto Montes
Alberto Montes is 12-1 overall on a four-fight win streak, fresh off a debut win in the UFC. His recent work came against modest regional opposition, so the step up in competition is the open question rather than any established hole in his game.
Matchup Read
Standing exchanges favor McMillen's output and reach, letting him fire from outside Montes' range while walking him down. His knockout power and ability to end fights early mean the longer this stays in open space, the more that pressure compounds. Montes needs to close the 13 cm gap, change the rhythm, and drag McMillen out of his preferred distance before the pace and size start dictating terms across three rounds.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Montes can get inside the reach gap or spends the round eating shots at the end of McMillen's punches.
- Finishing danger: how Montes holds up the first time McMillen sits down on a power shot.
- Pace across three rounds: whether McMillen's volume and forward pressure keep building or Montes finds a way to slow it.
Key Uncertainty
Both men have only a single UFC fight on record, so neither has been tested repeatedly at this level, and Montes' recent wins came against modest regional opposition, leaving the true quality of each largely unproven.