← Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado
Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales
Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · 2026-09-12
69.1%
Model
44.6%
Market
2.16
Odds
+24.5
Edge (pp)
established · 18 UFC fightsestablished · 18 fights
Style Matchup
limited sample · 5 UFC fightslimited · 5 fights
STRIKING
P46
Striking Initiative
P4
P60
Volume
P9
P52
Striking Efficiency
P5
P44
Range Sniper
P19
P64
Kickboxing
P5
P12
Clinch Striking
P65
P91
Defensive Striking
P62
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P50
Wrestling
P47
P42
Pressure Wrestling
P28
P58
Top Control
P23
P80
Submission
P96
P97
Anti-Wrestling
P11
P84
Grappling Defense
P3
P61
Scrambler
P84
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P18
Power
P39
P56
Finisher
P60
P73
Damage Resistance
P29
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P32
Fast Starter
P39
P50
Pace
P13
P77
Late Fighter
P25
GLOBAL
P93
Versatility
P13
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
MorenoMorales
3.80Landed / min2.00
3.57Absorbed / min2.05
44%Accuracy41%
62%Defense58%
0.15KD / 150.38
0.25KD abs / 150.38
Grappling / Wrestling
MorenoMorales
1.30TD / 151.14
3.44TD att / 152.66
38%TD accuracy43%
67%TD defense27%
2:35Control / 152:33
0.45Sub att / 153.04
Targets
MorenoMorales
Head72%|63%
Body16%|29%
Leg11%|8%
Position
MorenoMorales
Distance88%|56%
Clinch6%|14%
Ground6%|30%
Ranking evolution Moreno Morales
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Brandon Moreno
Brandon Moreno's most consistent asset here is his takedown defense, keeping exchanges standing when he wants them there. Across all organizations he sits at 23-11, with a recent win over the No. 9-ranked opponent showing he can still beat quality flyweights, though his UFC run reads 2 wins in his last 5.
Joseph Morales
Joseph Morales rides a 2-fight streak and a 14-4 all-orgs record, winning 3 of his last 5 in the UFC. His striking output and top control have both been trending upward, and he pairs recent finishing momentum with a live submission threat. He's also shown he can scramble off his back and get up.
Matchup Read
Moreno's takedown defense meets Morales's push to control on the mat and hunt finishes. If Moreno keeps it standing, he takes away the top game and submission threat that carry Morales's recent momentum. If Morales does get it down, his ability to work back up if reversed keeps him in control of where the fight lives. The ground exchanges, and whether they happen at all, decide this over three rounds.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Morales can plant Moreno on the mat or gets stuffed and forced to strike.
- Ground scrambles: if it hits the floor, watch who wins the reversals and gets back to the feet.
- Late rounds: whether Morales's rising volume shows up in round three as the pace holds.