← UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
Brandon Moreno vs Lone'er Kavanagh
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02-28
72.0%
Model
66.3%
Market
1.45
Odds
+5.7
Edge (pp)
established · 17 UFC fightsestablished · 17 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
STRIKING
P48
Striking Initiative
P36
P64
Volume
P48
P54
Striking Efficiency
P56
P49
Range Sniper
P43
P63
Kickboxing
P51
P5
Clinch Striking
P26
P93
Defensive Striking
P59
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P55
Wrestling
P64
P37
Pressure Wrestling
P66
P51
Top Control
P78
P80
Submission
P24
P96
Anti-Wrestling
P82
P79
Grappling Defense
P75
P60
Scrambler
P66
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P19
Power
P24
P55
Finisher
P16
P67
Damage Resistance
P33
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P31
Fast Starter
P32
P49
Pace
P54
P79
Late Fighter
P11
GLOBAL
P94
Versatility
P69
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
MorenoKavanagh
3.85Landed / min4.24
3.55Absorbed / min3.66
43%Accuracy49%
62%Defense58%
0.16KD / 150.00
0.27KD abs / 150.38
Grappling / Wrestling
MorenoKavanagh
1.41TD / 151.89
3.32TD att / 153.79
43%TD accuracy50%
66%TD defense89%
2:26Control / 152:51
0.49Sub att / 150.38
Targets
MorenoKavanagh
Head73%|55%
Body16%|26%
Leg11%|18%
Position
MorenoKavanagh
Distance88%|79%
Clinch6%|6%
Ground7%|15%
Ranking evolution Moreno Kavanagh
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Brandon Moreno
Brandon Moreno's most consistent weapon is his finishing threat once the fight hits the mat, where his submission chains stay live. He's tested against the top of the division, having recently beaten the No. 9-ranked opponent, and carries an 8 cm reach advantage to work behind at range.
Lone'er Kavanagh
Lone'er Kavanagh's ground control has been trending upward lately, and his ability to scramble free of bottom position and return to the feet stands out. Off a 9-1 overall mark and 2 of his last 3 UFC wins, he has not been stopped in his recent outings.
Matchup Read
Moreno's submission threat on the ground meets Kavanagh's knack for escaping bottom control and standing back up, and that collision defines the fight. If Moreno gets top position or a back-take, his finishing danger is real, but Kavanagh's scrambling can neutralize it before he locks anything up. Standing, Moreno's 8 cm reach gives him room to manage distance, so Kavanagh's route may run through his rising ground control.
What to Watch
- Grappling scrambles: whether Kavanagh can wall-walk and stand up before Moreno isolates a submission.
- Distance: how well Moreno uses the reach to keep exchanges at his range.
- Ground time: whether Kavanagh's improving top control lets him hold Moreno down rather than trade positions.