Moreno's submission threat on the ground meets Kavanagh's knack for escaping bottom control and standing back up, and that collision defines the fight. If Moreno gets top position or a back-take, his finishing danger is real, but Kavanagh's scrambling can neutralize it before he locks anything up. Standing, Moreno's 8 cm reach gives him room to manage distance, so Kavanagh's route may run through his rising ground control.

Vera brings the tested, higher-level résumé, but Martinez owns the sharper matchup-specific tools standing. The fight splits cleanly by phase: at range, Martinez's distance control and durability favor long striking exchanges, while Vera's path runs through getting it down and hunting a finish on the mat. Vera's reach and switch looks complicate Martinez's entries, but if the fight stays vertical, Martinez's defensive stand-up blunts Vera's best route.

Green's distance management and stand-up defense meet Zellhuber's reach and his push to get the fight to the mat. On the feet, Green's defensive sharpness has to neutralize the length Zellhuber fires behind. If Zellhuber can't keep it standing on his terms, his slight takedown edge and finishing threat tilt the exchanges on the ground. Zellhuber's recent durability also matters in longer exchanges where Green looks to counter.

On the feet, Chairez's rising volume, reach, and cleaner distance management shape the striking, while Bunes' improved defense and takedown stuffing point toward keeping things standing rather than being dragged into a grappling war. If Bunes wins the battle to stay upright, this becomes a striking contest where Chairez's output and finishing threat matter most. His chin also lets him trade without folding. Bunes needs his sharpened defense to blunt that pressure.

Borjas's length meets Rodriguez's push to make it a grappling fight. If Borjas keeps range and uses his reach to control distance, he keeps Rodriguez out of the exchanges where the debutant's submission threat lives. Should Rodriguez close the gap and drag it to the mat, his finishing danger on the ground becomes the central concern. Borjas's exposure to tougher opposition may matter across the sharper moments.

Standing, this leans toward Luna: his range work and 10 cm reach let him fight in open space, and his takedown defense means Pacheco can't easily drag him out of it. If the fight does hit the mat, Luna's submission threat becomes the central danger rather than a safe harbor. Pacheco needs to close distance and score control, but every phase Luna is strong in sits directly in his path.

Gandra's ground finishing threat is the clearest point of contact here: if he can drag exchanges to the mat, that's where his most concrete danger lives, and Medina has already absorbed a recent stoppage. Medina's task is to keep this upright and deny the mat game its opening. The absence of a comparable finishing threat on Medina's side means the ground tilts toward Gandra whenever the fight gets there.

Moutinho's cardio becomes the argument late, but to get there he has to survive Quinonez's early edges: the cleaner range work, the level changes to the mat, and the durability to weather return fire. If Quinonez controls distance and grinds from top position, he dictates where this plays out. Moutinho's path runs through dragging it into deep water, where his pace and the orthodox-southpaw angles can shift the exchanges.

Reyes owns the more immediate danger if he can drag this to the floor, where his ground finishing threat becomes the central concern for de Andrade. His length should help him manage range early and set up entries. De Andrade's value builds the longer things stay competitive, leaning on his experience against sharper opposition to weather early pressure and stay in exchanges he's seen before. The fight tilts on whether Reyes converts his reach and grappling before de Andrade's tested composure takes over.

The tension sits between phases and clock. Marshall's cardio and top control point toward a grind that pays off the longer things run, while Silva's finishing threat makes the early exchanges the window where he can flip it. If Marshall drags this into the later stretch, his pace and work from top become the deciding factors; if Silva lands clean before then, the depth question never gets asked.