← UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
Cristian Quinonez vs Kris Moutinho
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02-28
87.3%
Model
83.6%
Market
1.15
Odds
+3.8
Edge (pp)
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
STRIKING
P25
Striking Initiative
P24
P61
Volume
P73
P19
Striking Efficiency
P7
P17
Range Sniper
P39
P53
Kickboxing
P44
P29
Clinch Striking
P12
P27
Defensive Striking
P3
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P53
Wrestling
P13
P34
Pressure Wrestling
P0
P55
Top Control
P10
P21
Submission
P25
P35
Anti-Wrestling
P59
P50
Grappling Defense
P76
P32
Scrambler
P31
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P22
Power
P10
P46
Finisher
P28
P37
Damage Resistance
P23
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P33
Fast Starter
P1
P72
Pace
P3
P35
Late Fighter
P35
GLOBAL
P21
Versatility
P3
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
QuinonezMoutinho
3.44Landed / min4.51
4.00Absorbed / min14.68
39%Accuracy32%
49%Defense29%
0.00KD / 150.00
0.85KD abs / 151.56
Grappling / Wrestling
QuinonezMoutinho
1.69TD / 150.00
5.92TD att / 150.78
29%TD accuracy0%
77%TD defense—
2:45Control / 150:07
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
QuinonezMoutinho
Head74%|57%
Body5%|10%
Leg21%|32%
Position
QuinonezMoutinho
Distance89%|99%
Clinch5%|1%
Ground7%|0%
Ranking evolution Quinonez Moutinho
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Cristian Quinonez
Quinonez brings the sharper stand-up tools here, managing range well and defending cleanly on the feet, helped by a 5 cm reach advantage. He can change levels and get the fight down, with his ground control trending upward lately. He also holds up well under fire, absorbing damage without folding. Sits at 17-5 across all organizations.
Kris Moutinho
Moutinho's most consistent edge is his gas tank, the kind that grows in value as the fight wears on. His defensive work on the feet has been improving recently. He carries a 14-7 record across all organizations and is 0-3 inside the UFC against modest regional-level opposition.
Matchup Read
Moutinho's cardio becomes the argument late, but to get there he has to survive Quinonez's early edges: the cleaner range work, the level changes to the mat, and the durability to weather return fire. If Quinonez controls distance and grinds from top position, he dictates where this plays out. Moutinho's path runs through dragging it into deep water, where his pace and the orthodox-southpaw angles can shift the exchanges.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Quinonez can hold the range with his reach or Moutinho closes it and makes it a phone-booth fight.
- Grappling: whether Quinonez's level changes land and he can grind out top time, versus Moutinho scrambling back up.
- Late rounds: if the fight stays competitive into the later going, watch whether Moutinho's pace starts turning the volume in his favor.
Key Uncertainty
Quinonez has been out for just over two years, and a layoff that long makes it genuinely hard to know how sharp his timing and output will be early on.