← UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
David Martinez vs Marlon Vera
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02-28
79.0%
Model
69.2%
Market
1.39
Odds
+9.7
Edge (pp)
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
Style Matchup
established · 25 UFC fightsestablished · 25 fights
STRIKING
P97
Striking Initiative
P43
P87
Volume
P59
P63
Striking Efficiency
P74
P65
Range Sniper
P93
P74
Kickboxing
P80
P38
Clinch Striking
P51
P95
Defensive Striking
P18
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P16
Wrestling
P16
P14
Pressure Wrestling
P18
P33
Top Control
P19
P2
Submission
P83
P54
Anti-Wrestling
P42
P72
Grappling Defense
P67
P33
Scrambler
P40
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P95
Power
P55
P64
Finisher
P62
P47
Damage Resistance
P100
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P79
Fast Starter
P9
P43
Pace
P11
P51
Late Fighter
P99
GLOBAL
P41
Versatility
P63
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
MartinezVera
4.53Landed / min4.25
2.85Absorbed / min5.37
45%Accuracy49%
69%Defense50%
0.76KD / 150.58
0.00KD abs / 150.04
Grappling / Wrestling
MartinezVera
0.00TD / 150.49
2.29TD att / 151.24
0%TD accuracy39%
100%TD defense73%
0:57Control / 151:21
0.00Sub att / 150.80
Targets
MartinezVera
Head61%|54%
Body12%|21%
Leg27%|25%
Position
MartinezVera
Distance85%|79%
Clinch6%|10%
Ground9%|11%
Ranking evolution Martinez Vera
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
David Martinez
David Martinez rides a nine-fight win streak, 13-1 overall and 2-0 in the UFC, with his most recent win coming against the No. 14-ranked opponent. His standing game is built on sharp distance management and solid stand-up defense that's been tightening lately, backed by a durable chin and real finishing momentum over his recent run.
Marlon Vera
Marlon Vera owns a deep 24-11 résumé and a long UFC tenure, with a recent win over the No. 10-ranked opponent. His most dangerous tools are his ability to drag the fight to the mat and his finishing threat once there. He also carries an 8 cm reach advantage and fights from a switch stance.
Matchup Read
Vera brings the tested, higher-level résumé, but Martinez owns the sharper matchup-specific tools standing. The fight splits cleanly by phase: at range, Martinez's distance control and durability favor long striking exchanges, while Vera's path runs through getting it down and hunting a finish on the mat. Vera's reach and switch looks complicate Martinez's entries, but if the fight stays vertical, Martinez's defensive stand-up blunts Vera's best route.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Vera can close distance and complete takedowns, or Martinez keeps it standing and forces striking exchanges.
- If it hits the mat: how quickly Vera threatens a submission versus how well Martinez defends and scrambles back up.
- Range striking: whether Vera's 8 cm reach keeps Martinez out, or Martinez works inside despite the length.
Key Uncertainty
Martinez has only two UFC fights on record, so how his stand-up and takedown defense hold up against a seasoned, higher-level opponent like Vera remains the main open question.