AIVera carries the more tested track record, but the sharper matchup-specific tools sit with Zahabi. On the fe…

67.7%

Model

60.1%

Market

1.60

Odds

+7.6

Edge (pp)

Aiemann Zahabi

DEC

67.7%32.3%

Marlon Vera

DEFENSIVE STRIKER

Striking Defense

established · 9 UFC fightsestablished · 9 fights

Style Matchup

SUBMISSION HUNTER

Submission

established · 24 UFC fightsestablished · 24 fights

STRIKING

P52

Striking Initiative

P45

P66

Volume

P59

P73

Striking Efficiency

P78

P86

Range Sniper

P93

P63

Kickboxing

P82

Clinch Striking

P55

P98

Defensive Striking

P22

GRAPPLING / WRESTLING

Wrestling

P17

P18

Pressure Wrestling

P19

P41

Top Control

P20

P24

Submission

P84

P95

Anti-Wrestling

P39

P94

Grappling Defense

P66

P38

Scrambler

P41

DAMAGE / FINISHING

P63

Power

P56

P24

Finisher

P61

P51

Damage Resistance

P100

FIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill

P25

Fast Starter

P13

Pace

P12

P95

Late Fighter

P99

GLOBAL

P64

Versatility

P67

Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.

Striking

ZahabiVera

4.42Landed / min4.27

4.13Absorbed / min5.37

47%Accuracy49%

70%Defense50%

0.42KD / 150.56

0.28KD abs / 150.05

Grappling / Wrestling

ZahabiVera

0.14TD / 150.51

0.99TD att / 151.30

14%TD accuracy39%

84%TD defense73%

0:47Control / 151:25

0.00Sub att / 150.83

Targets

Position

Ranking evolution Zahabi Vera

AI Matchup Analysis

Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.

Aiemann Zahabi

Aiemann Zahabi rides a six-fight win streak, going 5/5 in his last five UFC outings, capped by a win over the No. 12-ranked opponent. His striking output and top control have both been trending upward, and his recent run shows no dip in form. He manages range well, defends the takedown, and takes a shot without folding.

Marlon Vera

Marlon Vera brings a deep 24-10 all-organizations résumé and 15 UFC wins, his last victory coming against the No. 10-ranked opponent. At 5 cm the longer man here, he owns the reach in the striking exchanges. He's been out for 14.5 months since his last fight.

Matchup Read

Vera carries the more tested track record, but the sharper matchup-specific tools sit with Zahabi. On the feet, Zahabi's range control and stand-up defense have to work against Vera's 5 cm reach and switch-stance looks that change the angles. If Zahabi wants the mat his takedown entries are relevant, while his own takedown defense lets him dictate where this plays out. His chin gives him room to trade.

What to Watch

Early striking: whether Zahabi can close Vera's reach and land inside without eating counters as the switch-stance shifts angles.
Grappling: whether Zahabi looks to change levels and hold top position, or keeps the fight standing on his terms.
Late rounds: whether Vera's timing sharpens after 14.5 months out as the fight wears on.

Key Uncertainty

Vera comes in off a 14.5-month layoff, so how quickly his timing and rhythm return is the main unknown when projecting how these exchanges unfold.

Aiemann Zahabi vs Marlon Vera