← UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
Francis Marshall vs Erik Silva
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02-28
70.4%
Model
83.5%
Market
1.15
Odds
-13.1
Edge (pp)
limited sample · 5 UFC fightslimited · 5 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
STRIKING
P14
Striking Initiative
P0
P45
Volume
P1
P1
Striking Efficiency
P79
P15
Range Sniper
P41
P18
Kickboxing
P66
P16
Clinch Striking
P74
P35
Defensive Striking
P35
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P63
Wrestling
P69
P58
Pressure Wrestling
P46
P75
Top Control
P22
P55
Submission
P34
P38
Anti-Wrestling
P14
P58
Grappling Defense
P24
P29
Scrambler
P89
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P41
Power
P8
P37
Finisher
P49
P60
Damage Resistance
P38
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P35
Fast Starter
P65
P78
Pace
P3
P80
Late Fighter
P35
GLOBAL
P9
Versatility
P37
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
MarshallSilva
2.43Landed / min1.46
3.87Absorbed / min1.73
27%Accuracy70%
52%Defense38%
0.54KD / 150.00
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
MarshallSilva
1.87TD / 153.12
5.09TD att / 154.16
37%TD accuracy75%
67%TD defense63%
4:03Control / 152:55
0.54Sub att / 150.00
Targets
MarshallSilva
Head85%|57%
Body7%|29%
Leg9%|14%
Position
MarshallSilva
Distance90%|62%
Clinch4%|33%
Ground7%|5%
Ranking evolution Marshall Silva
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Francis Marshall
Francis Marshall's most consistent strength is his conditioning, holding a strong pace deep into the fight and keeping his gas tank steady over the distance. He can grind from top position once the fight hits the mat, and his striking output has been climbing recently. His UFC ledger sits at 2-3, 8-3 overall.
Erik Silva
Erik Silva carries the greater threat to close the show before the scorecards, his most notable edge in this pairing. He's 9-3 across all organizations but 0-2 in the UFC, and hasn't competed in over two years. At 12 years the elder man in the cage.
Matchup Read
The tension sits between phases and clock. Marshall's cardio and top control point toward a grind that pays off the longer things run, while Silva's finishing threat makes the early exchanges the window where he can flip it. If Marshall drags this into the later stretch, his pace and work from top become the deciding factors; if Silva lands clean before then, the depth question never gets asked.
What to Watch
- Early exchanges: whether Silva can force a finish in the opening stretch before the pace question sets in.
- Grappling: whether Marshall can establish and hold top position rather than trading on the feet.
- Late rounds: whether Marshall's output stays high as the fight wears on.
Key Uncertainty
Silva is hard to read here, with only two UFC fights on record and more than two years out of competition since his last outing.