← UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
Ryan Gandra vs Jose Daniel Medina
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02-28
Ryan GandraLow Data
82.1%
Model
81.7%
Market
1.18
Odds
+0.4
Edge (pp)
No UFC data yet
UFC debut · style profile after first fight
Style Matchup
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
STRIKING
Striking Initiative
P4
Volume
P17
Striking Efficiency
P54
Range Sniper
P48
Kickboxing
P94
Clinch Striking
P25
Defensive Striking
P8
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
Wrestling
P38
Pressure Wrestling
P13
Top Control
P4
Submission
P12
Anti-Wrestling
P2
Grappling Defense
P3
Scrambler
P31
DAMAGE / FINISHING
Power
P27
Finisher
P74
Damage Resistance
P30
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
Fast Starter
P23
Pace
P1
Late Fighter
P28
GLOBAL
Versatility
P6
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
GandraMedina
—Landed / min2.53
—Absorbed / min5.20
—Accuracy44%
—Defense41%
—KD / 150.00
—KD abs / 150.66
Grappling / Wrestling
GandraMedina
—TD / 150.66
—TD att / 151.31
—TD accuracy50%
—TD defense36%
—Control / 150:47
—Sub att / 150.00
Targets
GandraMedina
Head—|53%
Body—|24%
Leg—|22%
Position
GandraMedina
Distance—|97%
Clinch—|2%
Ground—|2%
Ranking evolution Gandra Medina
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Ryan Gandra
Ryan Gandra arrives on a 7-fight win streak with an 8-1 record across all organizations, built on modest regional opposition. He carries a submission threat once the fight hits the mat, and he hasn't been stopped in his recent bouts.
Jose Daniel Medina
Jose Daniel Medina steps in at 11-6 overall but 0-3 in the UFC, without a win in his last 3 appearances. He's coming off 5.5 months out, with his recent results against modest regional opposition.
Matchup Read
Gandra's ground finishing threat is the clearest point of contact here: if he can drag exchanges to the mat, that's where his most concrete danger lives, and Medina has already absorbed a recent stoppage. Medina's task is to keep this upright and deny the mat game its opening. The absence of a comparable finishing threat on Medina's side means the ground tilts toward Gandra whenever the fight gets there.
What to Watch
- Grappling: watch whether Gandra can close distance and get the fight to the mat, where his submission threat becomes live.
- Recent durability: watch how Medina holds up in scrambles and under top pressure, given his recent stoppage loss.
- Early tempo: watch whether Medina can keep the bout standing and avoid extended time on his back.
Key Uncertainty
With Gandra making his UFC debut and no promotional history to lean on, how his ground game holds up against a step up in competition is the main limit to reading this matchup.