← UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
Tatsuro Taira vs Brandon Moreno
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12-06
58.4%
Model
53.5%
Market
1.80
Odds
+4.9
Edge (pp)
established · 8 UFC fightsestablished · 8 fights
Style Matchup
established · 16 UFC fightsestablished · 16 fights
STRIKING
P17
Striking Initiative
P51
P3
Volume
P65
P39
Striking Efficiency
P54
P14
Range Sniper
P48
P14
Kickboxing
P63
P11
Clinch Striking
P6
P6
Defensive Striking
P94
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P90
Wrestling
P57
P86
Pressure Wrestling
P37
P97
Top Control
P55
P88
Submission
P79
P92
Anti-Wrestling
P98
P32
Grappling Defense
P79
P97
Scrambler
P60
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P70
Power
P20
P75
Finisher
P55
P67
Damage Resistance
P73
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P79
Fast Starter
P37
P75
Pace
P54
P65
Late Fighter
P69
GLOBAL
P51
Versatility
P95
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
TairaMoreno
2.87Landed / min3.93
2.54Absorbed / min3.54
60%Accuracy43%
47%Defense63%
0.51KD / 150.17
0.17KD abs / 150.28
Grappling / Wrestling
TairaMoreno
3.21TD / 151.45
6.60TD att / 153.41
49%TD accuracy43%
45%TD defense65%
8:10Control / 152:29
1.69Sub att / 150.45
Targets
TairaMoreno
Head77%|72%
Body8%|16%
Leg15%|11%
Position
TairaMoreno
Distance52%|88%
Clinch3%|6%
Ground44%|7%
Ranking evolution Taira Moreno
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Tatsuro Taira
Taira brings dominant top control once the fight hits the mat, and his recent run has been built on finishes, including a live submission threat off his grappling. At 17-1 overall and 7-1 in the UFC, he's won four of his last five, with his only loss coming against the No. 2-ranked opponent.
Brandon Moreno
Moreno's striking output has been climbing recently, and he pairs that rising volume with steady pressure on the feet. His takedown defense gives him a route to keep exchanges standing. Deeply tested at 23-9 overall and 11-5 in the UFC, he most recently beat a top-ten opponent and has shown no recent dip in form.
Matchup Read
Taira's push to get it down and grind from top position runs straight into Moreno's takedown defense and effort to keep it standing, and that collision decides the fight. If Taira lands his entries, his top control and submission threat come alive. If Moreno stays vertical, his rising volume and forward pressure dictate the striking exchanges and stretch things into deeper water where his experience matters.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Taira's level changes stick or Moreno's defense keeps forcing the fight back to the feet.
- Striking: how much output Moreno lands when the fight stays standing, and whether his pressure keeps Taira reacting.
- Ground scrambles: if Taira does land a takedown, watch how quickly he transitions toward control or a submission attempt.