← UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown
Joseph Morales vs Matt Schnell
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11-08
81.0%
Model
69.4%
Market
1.39
Odds
+11.7
Edge (pp)
provisional · 4 UFC fightsprovisional · 4 fights
Style Matchup
established · 14 UFC fightsestablished · 14 fights
STRIKING
P3
Striking Initiative
P63
P11
Volume
P82
P6
Striking Efficiency
P23
P23
Range Sniper
P42
P6
Kickboxing
P29
P67
Clinch Striking
P34
P61
Defensive Striking
P72
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P49
Wrestling
P22
P25
Pressure Wrestling
P24
P17
Top Control
P18
P91
Submission
P92
P1
Anti-Wrestling
P77
P0
Grappling Defense
P22
P34
Scrambler
P51
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P42
Power
P11
P57
Finisher
P44
P28
Damage Resistance
P3
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P7
Fast Starter
P30
P12
Pace
P33
P15
Late Fighter
P45
GLOBAL
P9
Versatility
P32
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
MoralesSchnell
2.02Landed / min4.11
2.11Absorbed / min4.08
40%Accuracy39%
57%Defense57%
0.41KD / 150.14
0.41KD abs / 150.85
Grappling / Wrestling
MoralesSchnell
1.23TD / 150.56
2.87TD att / 151.41
43%TD accuracy40%
29%TD defense45%
2:15Control / 151:10
2.87Sub att / 151.41
Targets
MoralesSchnell
Head62%|75%
Body31%|10%
Leg7%|16%
Position
MoralesSchnell
Distance57%|82%
Clinch15%|8%
Ground28%|10%
Ranking evolution Morales Schnell
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Joseph Morales
Joseph Morales comes in on a one-fight win streak with a 13-4 overall mark and a 2-2 UFC ledger. His striking output and top control have both been trending upward, and his recent work carries real finishing momentum, including a live submission threat once the fight hits the mat. He also fights out of a switch stance with sound distance work.
Matt Schnell
Matt Schnell brings the deeper résumé at 17-12 overall and 7-7 in the UFC, with a height advantage of 5 cm over Morales. His main asset here is the volume and forward pressure he brings on the feet. He's coming off a win but has been out for 6.4 months.
Matchup Read
Schnell's striking pressure meets Morales' rising submission and top-control threat, and that collision frames the fight. If Schnell keeps it at range and works behind his volume and height, he dictates. Morales' counter is to close the distance and change levels, where his upward-trending ground control and finishing threat off the mat become the central danger. Morales' distance defense may help him weather the early standing exchanges long enough to find his entries.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Schnell can establish his output and length before Morales closes the gap.
- Grappling: how quickly Morales gets the fight to the mat and whether his top control holds.
- Scrambles: watch for submission attempts from Morales the moment exchanges hit the ground.