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Rafa Garcia vs Rongzhu
Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · 2026-09-12
53.5%
Model
40.7%
Market
2.36
Odds
+12.8
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P52
Striking Initiative
P72
P57
Volume
P69
P55
Striking Efficiency
P93
P50
Range Sniper
P86
P57
Kickboxing
P88
P55
Clinch Striking
P4
P81
Defensive Striking
P42
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P91
Wrestling
P70
P88
Pressure Wrestling
P65
P81
Top Control
P73
P65
Submission
P35
P85
Anti-Wrestling
P90
P92
Grappling Defense
P84
P51
Scrambler
P51
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P9
Power
P74
P29
Finisher
P66
P80
Damage Resistance
P87
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P38
Fast Starter
P3
P75
Pace
P53
P77
Late Fighter
P87
GLOBAL
P98
Versatility
P94
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
GarciaRongzhu
4.28Landed / min5.60
4.42Absorbed / min5.78
44%Accuracy50%
61%Defense54%
0.10KD / 150.37
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
GarciaRongzhu
3.22TD / 151.86
7.05TD att / 152.98
46%TD accuracy63%
77%TD defense83%
3:16Control / 152:26
0.40Sub att / 150.00
Targets
GarciaRongzhu
Head79%|76%
Body13%|12%
Leg8%|11%
Position
GarciaRongzhu
Distance85%|88%
Clinch10%|2%
Ground5%|10%
Ranking evolution Garcia Rongzhu
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Rafa Garcia
Rafa Garcia comes in on a three-fight winning streak with his finishing coming more sharply into focus lately, including real pop on his recent knockouts. His grappling is where he's trending up: his top control has been rising, and he's shown he can scramble off his back and get the fight standing again. He's also been tested against stronger opposition.
Rongzhu
Rongzhu carries a deep 28-6 overall record and his own three-fight run. His edge in this matchup sits in the striking, where his output and forward pressure have been climbing recently. At 5 cm taller, he has the frame to work behind his jab and keep exchanges at range.
Matchup Read
Rongzhu's rising volume and pressure give him the early edge at range, where his height helps him work behind long strikes. Garcia's counter is to close distance and turn it into a grappling fight: his improving top control and ability to climb back to his feet matter more the longer it stays physical. The central question is whether Rongzhu can keep it at kickboxing range or whether Garcia drags it into the clinch and onto the mat.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Rongzhu can establish his jab and volume at range before Garcia closes the gap.
- Grappling: how quickly Garcia changes levels, and whether he can hold top position once it hits the mat.
- Scrambles: if Rongzhu reverses or stands back up, or Garcia keeps him pinned across three rounds.
Key Uncertainty
Rongzhu returns from 12.6 months out, a longer-than-usual layoff that adds some question to how his rising striking rhythm holds up against live resistance.