← UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
Rafa Garcia vs Alexander Hernandez
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04-25
57.8%
Model
41.0%
Market
2.35
Odds
+16.8
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
established · 17 UFC fightsestablished · 17 fights
STRIKING
P51
Striking Initiative
P53
P54
Volume
P69
P63
Striking Efficiency
P22
P56
Range Sniper
P58
P59
Kickboxing
P39
P63
Clinch Striking
P21
P79
Defensive Striking
P78
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P90
Wrestling
P42
P90
Pressure Wrestling
P55
P81
Top Control
P58
P65
Submission
P22
P82
Anti-Wrestling
P92
P88
Grappling Defense
P83
P53
Scrambler
P49
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P10
Power
P67
P35
Finisher
P27
P77
Damage Resistance
P63
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P27
Fast Starter
P35
P75
Pace
P50
P69
Late Fighter
P47
GLOBAL
P97
Versatility
P50
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
GarciaHernandez
4.31Landed / min4.31
4.54Absorbed / min4.50
46%Accuracy41%
61%Defense59%
0.11KD / 150.52
0.00KD abs / 150.17
Grappling / Wrestling
GarciaHernandez
3.13TD / 151.14
7.05TD att / 153.15
44%TD accuracy36%
76%TD defense73%
3:26Control / 152:07
0.45Sub att / 150.09
Targets
GarciaHernandez
Head78%|54%
Body14%|32%
Leg8%|14%
Position
GarciaHernandez
Distance84%|84%
Clinch10%|8%
Ground6%|8%
Ranking evolution Garcia Hernandez
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Rafa Garcia
Rafa Garcia's most consistent strength is his grappling, where his submission threat on the mat stands out and he can get exchanges to the floor. His striking output has been trending upward, and his recent results have held steady without a dip. He rides a 2-fight winning streak, going 4/5 in his last five UFC outings.
Alexander Hernandez
Alexander Hernandez carries a 4-fight winning streak and modest reach and frame advantages of 5 cm each. His ground control has been trending upward recently, giving him a way to neutralize scrambles from top position. He's 4/5 in his last five UFC fights, with his last win coming over the No. 27-ranked opponent.
Matchup Read
Garcia's push to get the fight down and hunt finishes runs straight into Hernandez's rising ground control, and that collision likely decides things. If Garcia lands his takedowns, the question is whether Hernandez's improving top game keeps him from being pinned underneath and worked for a submission. Standing, Hernandez's longer frame gives him room to keep it at range, where Garcia's growing volume has to close the gap.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Garcia can complete takedowns and immediately threaten submissions before Hernandez settles his position.
- Ground control: whether Hernandez can reverse or ride out top time rather than getting stuck defending on his back.
- Range striking: whether Hernandez uses his reach to keep distance, or Garcia's volume forces close-quarters exchanges.