Standing favors Duncan's length and range control; the ground brings Allen's submission danger into play. The central question is whether Allen can close that 10 cm gap and drag the fight to the mat, where his top game and finishing threat become live. Duncan's job is to keep it standing and defend entries over five rounds. If Allen gets consistent control time, his path opens; if he can't, Duncan's distance work dictates.

Standing, the reach gap and Herbert's volume let him fight behind his jab and keep Camilo at the end of punches. The mat is where it tips the other way: Camilo's level changes and top control are his route past that length, taking away the space Herbert needs to work. So the fight hinges on whether Camilo can close the distance and get it down before Herbert's output piles up at range. Three rounds puts a premium on who dictates where it plays out.

Kamaka's early pressure and volume push into Fili's length and tidier defense, so the opening question is whether he can close that 13-cm gap before eating return fire. As the fight stretches on, Fili's edges compound: his chin absorbs the volume, his takedowns can interrupt the pace, and his ability to climb back to the feet denies Kamaka sustained top work. Kamaka likely needs to crowd him and force a brawl inside.

Wellmaker owns the UFC exposure and the sharper stand-up tools, but the matchup-specific technical edges sit with Tanzilovi's wrestling. The fight splits cleanly: if it stays standing, Wellmaker's range work and finishing threat come forward, and Tanzilovi has recently tasted a stoppage. If Tanzilovi can change levels and plant him on the mat, he dictates where the action goes and takes the striking out of play.

Walker's takedown defense and top game meet Meerschaert's rising ground control and submission-heavy résumé, making grappling the pivotal phase. If Walker dictates where it goes and rides top position, his cardio advantage grows across three rounds. If Meerschaert draws him into scrambles, his experience in grappling exchanges becomes relevant. Meerschaert's recent durability means a quick finish is harder to come by, favoring a longer fight.

Standing play favors Bonfim, whose takedown defense keeps the fight upright and whose longer reach helps manage space over three rounds. If Prado does get him down, Bonfim's sprawl makes that a hard sell, and even from bottom Prado's get-up ability only buys neutral ground. Late, Bonfim's deeper gas tank matters: the longer this stays contested, the more his pace tells.

Standing favors Price's volume, forward pressure and defensive craft, while the floor is where Shahbazyan's submission threat comes alive. The fight likely turns on whether Shahbazyan can drag it down and work from top, where his control has been improving, against a durable opponent who's hard to finish with strikes. If Price keeps it upright and manages range behind his reach, his output compounds over three rounds.

Standing, Ribeiro's length and range management give him a platform to work behind the longer frame across three rounds. The trouble is that Franco's takedown defense and bottom escapes make it hard to pin him down, while his finishing threat raises the stakes in every exchange. If Ribeiro can keep this at distance and stay disciplined, the reach matters; if Franco closes and forces scrambles, his path to a stoppage opens.

Harris's pressure and power meet Frye's length and defensive range work. The central question is whether Harris can close the 5cm reach gap and get inside, where his volume and finishing threat live, or whether Frye uses the extra distance and his chin to keep exchanges at range and weather the early storm. If Frye manages distance, the fight stretches; if Harris crowds him, his power becomes the deciding factor.