← UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan
Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · 2026-10-10
63.4%
Model
48.6%
Market
1.98
Odds
+14.8
Edge (pp)
limited sample · 6 UFC fightslimited · 6 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P22
Striking Initiative
P68
P45
Volume
P78
P29
Striking Efficiency
P99
P53
Range Sniper
P99
P50
Kickboxing
P99
P40
Clinch Striking
P45
P45
Defensive Striking
P47
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P24
Wrestling
P47
P59
Pressure Wrestling
P19
P39
Top Control
P9
P67
Submission
P23
P73
Anti-Wrestling
P7
P5
Grappling Defense
P34
P81
Scrambler
P22
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P50
Power
P55
P92
Finisher
P35
P84
Damage Resistance
P42
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P61
Fast Starter
P10
P35
Pace
P33
P48
Late Fighter
P48
GLOBAL
P14
Versatility
P61
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
PradoBonfim
3.68Landed / min4.92
4.31Absorbed / min4.27
44%Accuracy55%
54%Defense53%
0.19KD / 150.32
0.00KD abs / 150.32
Grappling / Wrestling
PradoBonfim
0.76TD / 151.30
3.98TD att / 153.89
19%TD accuracy33%
40%TD defense73%
2:20Control / 151:13
0.76Sub att / 150.00
Targets
PradoBonfim
Head50%|64%
Body22%|21%
Leg27%|15%
Position
PradoBonfim
Distance79%|90%
Clinch7%|8%
Ground14%|1%
Ranking evolution Prado Bonfim
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Francisco Prado
Prado's recent work shows improving defensive discipline and a sturdy chin that has absorbed shots without folding lately. On the mat, he's shown the ability to scramble up from bottom position back to his feet. His UFC run sits at 1-5, with his last win over modest regional opposition.
Ismael Bonfim
Bonfim's main asset here is keeping the fight where he wants it, with solid takedown defense to stay standing. His cardio stands out, holding pace deep into the fight without fading. He carries a 20-7 record across all organizations and enters on a quick 2.5-month turnaround, giving up 5 cm of height but owning a 5 cm reach advantage.
Matchup Read
Standing play favors Bonfim, whose takedown defense keeps the fight upright and whose longer reach helps manage space over three rounds. If Prado does get him down, Bonfim's sprawl makes that a hard sell, and even from bottom Prado's get-up ability only buys neutral ground. Late, Bonfim's deeper gas tank matters: the longer this stays contested, the more his pace tells.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Prado can plant Bonfim down long enough to matter, or gets stuffed and reset to the feet.
- Late rounds: watch if Bonfim's pace pulls ahead as the third round wears on.
- Striking: whether Bonfim uses his reach to keep Prado at the end of his shots.