← UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown
Chris Padilla vs Ismael Bonfim
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11-08
51.4%
Model
32.3%
Market
2.98
Odds
+19.1
Edge (pp)
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 4 UFC fightsprovisional · 4 fights
STRIKING
P67
Striking Initiative
P98
P58
Volume
P98
P79
Striking Efficiency
P100
P49
Range Sniper
P96
P77
Kickboxing
P99
P63
Clinch Striking
P59
P64
Defensive Striking
P94
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P52
Wrestling
P34
P69
Pressure Wrestling
P14
P81
Top Control
P5
P67
Submission
P23
P60
Anti-Wrestling
P15
P79
Grappling Defense
P38
P32
Scrambler
P27
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P19
Power
P67
P68
Finisher
P36
P61
Damage Resistance
P63
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P6
Fast Starter
P42
P58
Pace
P48
P49
Late Fighter
P51
GLOBAL
P76
Versatility
P69
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
PadillaBonfim
4.13Landed / min5.77
3.68Absorbed / min3.15
52%Accuracy56%
58%Defense63%
0.00KD / 150.47
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
PadillaBonfim
1.56TD / 150.94
5.21TD att / 152.81
30%TD accuracy33%
100%TD defense73%
2:37Control / 150:41
0.52Sub att / 150.00
Targets
PadillaBonfim
Head52%|64%
Body13%|19%
Leg35%|16%
Position
PadillaBonfim
Distance89%|88%
Clinch10%|10%
Ground1%|2%
Ranking evolution Padilla Bonfim
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Chris Padilla
Chris Padilla rides a six-fight win streak and is a perfect 3-0 in the UFC, all against modest regional-level opposition. His most consistent recent asset is a live submission threat, and he owns a reach advantage plus enough takedown defense to make opponents work to put him on his back.
Ismael Bonfim
Ismael Bonfim carries a 20-5 record overall and sits at 2-2 in the UFC. His gas tank stands out as a reliable strength deep into fights, and he brings a slight edge in striking volume and pressure, with his output trending upward. He can also change levels to bring the fight to the mat.
Matchup Read
Bonfim's push to get the fight down meets Padilla's ability to defend takedowns and keep it standing, and that exchange sets the tone. If Bonfim scores from the clinch, he risks entering Padilla's submission threat off the mat. On the feet, Bonfim's volume and pressure run into Padilla's 8 cm reach. The longer the fight goes, Bonfim's cardio becomes the more meaningful factor over the distance.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Bonfim's level changes finish or stall against Padilla's sprawl, and how exposed he gets to submissions from top.
- Early striking: whether Bonfim can close Padilla's reach with pressure and volume, or eat shots stepping in.
- Late rounds: whether Bonfim's cardio starts telling as the pace holds and Padilla's output dips.