← UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Axel Sola vs Ismael Bonfim
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · 2026-07-25
74.3%
Model
62.9%
Market
1.53
Odds
+11.5
Edge (pp)
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
Style Matchup
limited sample · 5 UFC fightslimited · 5 fights
STRIKING
P25
Striking Initiative
P92
P37
Volume
P95
P67
Striking Efficiency
P100
P80
Range Sniper
P98
P62
Kickboxing
P100
P34
Clinch Striking
P45
P72
Defensive Striking
P71
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P65
Wrestling
P39
P42
Pressure Wrestling
P17
P78
Top Control
P4
P10
Submission
P23
P56
Anti-Wrestling
P10
P74
Grappling Defense
P37
P33
Scrambler
P22
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P87
Power
P59
P45
Finisher
P35
P60
Damage Resistance
P56
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P56
Fast Starter
P31
P50
Pace
P36
P64
Late Fighter
P59
GLOBAL
P70
Versatility
P64
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
SolaBonfim
4.07Landed / min5.46
5.29Absorbed / min3.97
46%Accuracy55%
61%Defense56%
0.55KD / 150.36
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
SolaBonfim
2.22TD / 151.08
6.10TD att / 153.25
36%TD accuracy33%
—TD defense73%
3:00Control / 150:37
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
SolaBonfim
Head81%|64%
Body19%|21%
Leg0%|15%
Position
SolaBonfim
Distance88%|90%
Clinch8%|8%
Ground4%|1%
Ranking evolution Sola Bonfim
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Axel Sola
Axel Sola carries real pop in his hands, with recent knockout power and finishing momentum behind him. He's held up well under fire lately, having avoided a recent stoppage loss, and offers something once the fight hits the mat through his top control. At 11-1 across all organizations, his length stands out at lightweight.
Ismael Bonfim
Ismael Bonfim leans on his striking, with a slight edge in output and forward pressure plus sharper distance management and stand-up defense. His 20-6 all-organizations record reflects a long pro résumé, though his recent UFC run sits at 2 wins in his last 5.
Matchup Read
Bonfim brings the deeper record, but Sola owns the sharper matchup-specific tools in the power and durability department. On the feet, Bonfim's volume and defensive reads meet Sola's knockout threat and significant length, 8 cm of reach and a southpaw look against Bonfim's orthodox stance. If Sola closes the range or drags it down, his top control becomes relevant; Bonfim's path runs through managing distance and keeping the exchanges clean over three rounds.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Bonfim can work behind his jab and footwork or gets walked onto Sola's power at range.
- Range battle: how Sola uses his reach and southpaw angles against Bonfim's pressure and defensive reads.
- On the mat: if it hits the floor, whether Sola can establish and hold top position.
Key Uncertainty
Sola has only two UFC fights on record, so how his power and control translate against this level of opposition remains harder to pin down than his all-organizations numbers suggest.