← UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg
Charles Radtke vs Francisco Prado
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04-11
50.7%
Model
63.0%
Market
1.53
Odds
-12.2
Edge (pp)
limited sample · 6 UFC fightslimited · 6 fights
Style Matchup
limited sample · 5 UFC fightslimited · 5 fights
STRIKING
P43
Striking Initiative
P30
P9
Volume
P54
P55
Striking Efficiency
P32
P26
Range Sniper
P56
P32
Kickboxing
P60
P34
Clinch Striking
P51
P36
Defensive Striking
P44
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P46
Wrestling
P31
P94
Pressure Wrestling
P63
P100
Top Control
P51
P59
Submission
P61
P66
Anti-Wrestling
P75
P93
Grappling Defense
P27
P33
Scrambler
P59
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P78
Power
P53
P60
Finisher
P92
P15
Damage Resistance
P80
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P64
Fast Starter
P79
P62
Pace
P51
P30
Late Fighter
P27
GLOBAL
P77
Versatility
P24
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
RadtkePrado
2.80Landed / min4.09
2.63Absorbed / min4.95
55%Accuracy44%
54%Defense55%
0.66KD / 150.23
0.66KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
RadtkePrado
1.32TD / 150.94
4.30TD att / 154.92
31%TD accuracy19%
100%TD defense50%
7:14Control / 152:27
0.66Sub att / 150.47
Targets
RadtkePrado
Head82%|50%
Body6%|21%
Leg12%|29%
Position
RadtkePrado
Distance69%|82%
Clinch9%|7%
Ground23%|11%
Ranking evolution Radtke Prado
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Charles Radtke
Charles Radtke's grappling anchors his game: he defends takedowns well to keep exchanges on his feet, and once the fight does hit the mat his top control travels with it. His recent run carries finishing momentum, and at 4-2 in the UFC he's taken three of his last five. An 8 cm reach advantage adds room to work at distance.
Francisco Prado
Francisco Prado brings the more dangerous finishing threat, capable of ending fights before the scorecards, and his output and forward pressure on the feet edge ahead. His recent damage absorption has held up well. At 12-4 across all organizations, he's the younger man here, though his UFC ledger sits at 1-4.
Matchup Read
Prado's push to finish and his pressure on the feet run straight into Radtke's takedown defense and top game. If Radtke keeps it standing on his terms and uses the reach, he limits Prado's opportunities; if he needs a reset, changing levels to his control positions neutralizes the striking. Prado's route runs through volume and his finishing power before Radtke can impose the grind. Where the fight settles, mat or feet, decides it.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Radtke stuffs Prado's entries and turns exchanges into extended top control.
- Early striking: if Prado closes distance and stacks volume inside Radtke's reach, his finishing danger climbs.
- Late rounds: whether Prado's pressure holds or Radtke's control tilts the pace his way.