Ulberg brings the cleaner recent résumé against ranked opposition, but Prochazka owns the sharper closing tools here. The key tension is at range: Ulberg's distance control and defensive stand-up meet Prochazka's longer reach, rising output, and finishing threat. If Ulberg keeps it standing and manages space, he can frustrate the volume. If Prochazka closes distance and loads up, his power and deeper tank grow more dangerous as the fight wears on.

The early rounds carry Murzakanov's finishing danger, while Costa's path runs through takedowns and improving top control that only pays off the longer he holds position. Costa's slight pressure and reach must get past Murzakanov's distance management and defensive footwork, with the southpaw-orthodox angle reshaping the openings. The central question is whether Costa can convert level changes before Murzakanov catches him in an exchange and ends it.

Blaydes carries the far deeper résumé and the longer frame, but the matchup-specific tools lean toward Hokit. If Hokit's takedown defense holds and keeps this standing, his volume, pressure and distance work become the deciding factors, and his finishing threat raises the stakes in every phase. Blaydes' reach gives him room to fight at range, but turning that length into control means getting past Hokit's defense and chin.

Phase by phase, this splits cleanly: at range Walker's reach and frame let him keep Reyes outside, while Reyes's volume and pressure reward him for closing the distance and taking it to the mat. The orthodox-southpaw setup reshapes the lead-hand exchanges. If Reyes can get past the length and ground Walker, his improving top control matters; if Walker keeps it standing and long, his edge grows the deeper things run.

On the feet, Swanson's rising volume and durability give him something to lean on, while the ground is where Landwehr's strengths complicate things. Swanson's level changes are a real option, but Landwehr's knack for escaping bottom position and getting back up blunts the value of any takedown. That pushes the fight toward extended striking exchanges, where Landwehr's slight reach can shape the spacing.

Brown's knockout power meets Holland's recent durability, and that collision frames the striking. Holland's longer reach gives him room to manage distance, but Brown's edge in dictating where the fight happens, both taking it down and keeping it up, lets him choose his spots. On the mat the threat flips: Holland's submission game becomes the central danger in any sustained ground exchange, so Brown's grappling control cuts both ways here.

Ribovics owns the early finishing danger, pushing volume and power into the pocket, while Gamrot's value grows the longer it stays technical and physical. The split is clear: if Ribovics keeps it standing and forces exchanges, his pressure meets Gamrot's range control and durability. If Gamrot changes levels, his takedowns and top game drag Ribovics into territory where Ribovics must either threaten off his back or scramble up against sustained control.

On the feet, Luque's length and forward pressure meet Gastelum's rising volume and cleaner defensive reads, a southpaw-orthodox pairing that reshapes the entry angles for both. If Luque backs him up, his closing power and submission threat make any scramble or grappling exchange dangerous for Gastelum. Gastelum's path runs through managing range and landing first, keeping the fight in the striking pockets where his output trend lives rather than tangled up.

Prado's push to finish and his pressure on the feet run straight into Radtke's takedown defense and top game. If Radtke keeps it standing on his terms and uses the reach, he limits Prado's opportunities; if he needs a reset, changing levels to his control positions neutralizes the striking. Prado's route runs through volume and his finishing power before Radtke can impose the grind. Where the fight settles, mat or feet, decides it.