← UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg
Vicente Luque vs Kelvin Gastelum
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04-11
65.2%
Model
31.8%
Market
3.02
Odds
+33.4
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
established · 24 UFC fightsestablished · 24 fights
STRIKING
P61
Striking Initiative
P43
P68
Volume
P66
P93
Striking Efficiency
P42
P97
Range Sniper
P55
P95
Kickboxing
P69
P20
Clinch Striking
P24
P32
Defensive Striking
P75
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P40
Wrestling
P35
P30
Pressure Wrestling
P42
P36
Top Control
P37
P84
Submission
P52
P41
Anti-Wrestling
P92
P33
Grappling Defense
P54
P41
Scrambler
P60
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P65
Power
P31
P90
Finisher
P12
P78
Damage Resistance
P60
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P48
Fast Starter
P32
P27
Pace
P40
P42
Late Fighter
P82
GLOBAL
P84
Versatility
P52
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
LuqueGastelum
4.83Landed / min3.64
5.30Absorbed / min3.54
51%Accuracy42%
52%Defense57%
0.65KD / 150.35
0.26KD abs / 150.35
Grappling / Wrestling
LuqueGastelum
0.90TD / 151.02
1.87TD att / 152.96
48%TD accuracy34%
61%TD defense60%
2:08Control / 152:00
0.65Sub att / 150.09
Targets
LuqueGastelum
Head61%|64%
Body14%|19%
Leg26%|17%
Position
LuqueGastelum
Distance89%|86%
Clinch6%|9%
Ground6%|5%
Ranking evolution Luque Gastelum
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Vicente Luque
Vicente Luque carries a 10cm reach advantage and a taller frame into this one, and his volume-and-pressure striking pairs with a submission threat on the mat and the ability to close the show before the judges get involved. His UFC ledger sits at 16-8, 2 wins in his last 5.
Kelvin Gastelum
Kelvin Gastelum comes in off a win, 3 of his last 5 UFC fights in the win column, with his striking output climbing recently. He brings tidier distance management and stand-up defense, and his recent form has held steady without a drop-off.
Matchup Read
On the feet, Luque's length and forward pressure meet Gastelum's rising volume and cleaner defensive reads, a southpaw-orthodox pairing that reshapes the entry angles for both. If Luque backs him up, his closing power and submission threat make any scramble or grappling exchange dangerous for Gastelum. Gastelum's path runs through managing range and landing first, keeping the fight in the striking pockets where his output trend lives rather than tangled up.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Luque uses his reach to fight long or Gastelum closes the gap and lands first inside.
- Grappling: any trip to the mat, since Luque's finishing threat there turns a scramble into real danger.
- Distance: how the southpaw-orthodox angles affect who controls the lead-hand exchanges.