← UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
Vicente Luque vs Joel Alvarez
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10-11
52.7%
Model
20.5%
Market
4.68
Odds
+32.1
Edge (pp)
established · 23 UFC fightsestablished · 23 fights
Style Matchup
established · 9 UFC fightsestablished · 9 fights
STRIKING
P71
Striking Initiative
P94
P69
Volume
P88
P95
Striking Efficiency
P98
P96
Range Sniper
P89
P96
Kickboxing
P94
P25
Clinch Striking
P86
P35
Defensive Striking
P40
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P47
Wrestling
P2
P28
Pressure Wrestling
P2
P42
Top Control
P3
P86
Submission
P99
P48
Anti-Wrestling
P39
P38
Grappling Defense
P3
P43
Scrambler
P45
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P70
Power
P25
P92
Finisher
P99
P76
Damage Resistance
P66
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P57
Fast Starter
P54
P32
Pace
P18
P62
Late Fighter
P35
GLOBAL
P91
Versatility
P53
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
LuqueAlvarez
5.02Landed / min4.51
5.25Absorbed / min3.32
52%Accuracy54%
52%Defense51%
0.69KD / 150.24
0.28KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
LuqueAlvarez
0.97TD / 150.00
1.86TD att / 150.47
52%TD accuracy0%
62%TD defense40%
2:17Control / 150:38
0.69Sub att / 151.18
Targets
LuqueAlvarez
Head61%|64%
Body13%|22%
Leg26%|14%
Position
LuqueAlvarez
Distance88%|78%
Clinch6%|15%
Ground6%|7%
Ranking evolution Luque Alvarez
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Vicente Luque
Joel Alvarez rides a three-fight win streak and a 22-3 overall mark, and his most dangerous quality is his finishing: he closes fights before the scorecards and carries real submission threat off his grappling. His striking output has been climbing lately, and with a 10 cm height and 5 cm reach advantage he has the frame to work at range.
Joel Alvarez
Vicente Luque, 23-13 overall and 16-7 in the UFC, does his best grappling defense on the mat: he's difficult to hold down and consistently scrambles back to his feet from bottom position. That get-up ability is his most relevant tool for this matchup.
Matchup Read
Luque brings the deeper, more tested résumé, but the sharper matchup-specific tools sit with Alvarez, whose finishing and submission threat headline the fight. If Alvarez gets top position, his ground danger meets Luque's ability to escape and stand back up, and that exchange likely decides things. On the feet, Alvarez's length and rising volume let him work behind his reach, while Luque needs to close that gap to make his own game count.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Alvarez can hold Luque down long enough to hunt a submission, or Luque scrambles free early.
- Striking: whether Alvarez uses his 5 cm reach to keep Luque at the end of his punches or gets drawn into the pocket.
- Finishing window: whether Alvarez threatens a stoppage early or the fight settles into longer exchanges.