← UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg
Azamat Murzakanov vs Paulo Costa
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04-11
57.5%
Model
61.8%
Market
1.56
Odds
-4.3
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
established · 11 UFC fightsestablished · 11 fights
STRIKING
P79
Striking Initiative
P85
P62
Volume
P82
P95
Striking Efficiency
P99
P92
Range Sniper
P97
P62
Kickboxing
P99
P27
Clinch Striking
P14
P81
Defensive Striking
P20
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P19
Wrestling
P23
P47
Pressure Wrestling
P9
P39
Top Control
P29
P7
Submission
P8
P35
Anti-Wrestling
P52
P88
Grappling Defense
P94
P27
Scrambler
P3
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P100
Power
P78
P82
Finisher
P76
P73
Damage Resistance
P76
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P55
Fast Starter
P85
P44
Pace
P15
P23
Late Fighter
P24
GLOBAL
P75
Versatility
P74
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
MurzakanovCosta
4.79Landed / min6.26
2.95Absorbed / min6.20
58%Accuracy59%
61%Defense49%
1.73KD / 150.53
0.00KD abs / 150.21
Grappling / Wrestling
MurzakanovCosta
0.58TD / 150.32
3.47TD att / 150.64
17%TD accuracy50%
88%TD defense80%
1:41Control / 150:45
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
MurzakanovCosta
Head70%|45%
Body25%|41%
Leg4%|14%
Position
MurzakanovCosta
Distance67%|89%
Clinch6%|5%
Ground28%|6%
Ranking evolution Murzakanov Costa
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Azamat Murzakanov
Murzakanov arrives unbeaten at 16-0, 6-0 in the UFC with wins in all five of his recent octagon appearances and a 16-fight win streak. His calling card is his ability to end fights early, with real finishing momentum built across recent outings. He manages distance well on the feet and has tested himself against better opposition.
Paulo Costa
Costa brings a level-changing threat and the stronger wrestling entries, with his ground control trending upward in recent fights. He carries slightly higher striking volume and pressure, and stands eight centimeters taller. His UFC ledger reads 7-4, with two wins in his last five, his most recent over a ranked opponent.
Matchup Read
The early rounds carry Murzakanov's finishing danger, while Costa's path runs through takedowns and improving top control that only pays off the longer he holds position. Costa's slight pressure and reach must get past Murzakanov's distance management and defensive footwork, with the southpaw-orthodox angle reshaping the openings. The central question is whether Costa can convert level changes before Murzakanov catches him in an exchange and ends it.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Costa's level changes land clean or Murzakanov keeps it standing and forces striking exchanges.
- Early striking: whether Murzakanov's distance control blunts Costa's pressure before any finishing sequence opens up.
- Later rounds: if the fight stays on the mat, how long Costa can sustain top position without giving up a scramble.