← UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
Azamat Murzakanov vs Aleksandar Rakic
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10-25
54.0%
Model
52.1%
Market
1.85
Odds
+1.9
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
established · 10 UFC fightsestablished · 10 fights
STRIKING
P81
Striking Initiative
P74
P65
Volume
P45
P95
Striking Efficiency
P47
P90
Range Sniper
P31
P62
Kickboxing
P40
P27
Clinch Striking
P48
P82
Defensive Striking
P24
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P21
Wrestling
P17
P46
Pressure Wrestling
P60
P44
Top Control
P94
P8
Submission
P20
P36
Anti-Wrestling
P49
P81
Grappling Defense
P77
P29
Scrambler
P24
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P99
Power
P81
P79
Finisher
P55
P71
Damage Resistance
P54
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P66
Fast Starter
P65
P53
Pace
P84
P13
Late Fighter
P18
GLOBAL
P75
Versatility
P50
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
MurzakanovRakic
5.05Landed / min4.16
2.95Absorbed / min2.91
58%Accuracy50%
62%Defense51%
1.54KD / 150.52
0.00KD abs / 150.13
Grappling / Wrestling
MurzakanovRakic
0.62TD / 150.66
3.69TD att / 152.76
17%TD accuracy24%
83%TD defense86%
1:46Control / 154:49
0.00Sub att / 150.13
Targets
MurzakanovRakic
Head71%|53%
Body25%|15%
Leg4%|31%
Position
MurzakanovRakic
Distance67%|66%
Clinch6%|10%
Ground28%|24%
Ranking evolution Murzakanov Rakic
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Azamat Murzakanov
Murzakanov comes in unbeaten at 15-0 overall and 5-0 in the UFC, riding a 15-fight win streak. His main threat is his ability to end fights before the scorecards, and both his striking output and his work from top position have been trending upward across his recent outings.
Aleksandar Rakic
Rakic owns the clear physical advantages here, standing 15 cm taller with an 18 cm reach edge, and his path to control the fight runs through getting it to the mat, where he can lean on his top game. His recent form is thinner, at 2 wins in his last 5 UFC fights, though his last victory came over the No. 7-ranked opponent.
Matchup Read
Rakic brings the tested résumé and physical frame, but Murzakanov owns the sharper finishing tools for this matchup. The fight likely turns on whether Rakic can use his length and level changes to drag it to the mat and grind from top, or whether Murzakanov keeps it standing long enough for his finishing threat to matter. Murzakanov needs to stay off the fence and off his back; Rakic wants to close the crossed-stance distance and make it a wrestling fight.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Rakic's level changes get through or Murzakanov's takedown defense keeps it upright.
- Early striking: how Murzakanov manages the 18 cm reach gap from southpaw to land inside.
- Late rounds: if it stays on the feet, whether Murzakanov's finishing pressure builds as the fight wears on.