Bautista's rising volume and pressure meet Nurmagomedov's range control and stand-up defense head-on, and that exchange sets the standing tone. If Bautista can crowd him and keep output high, he narrows the space Nurmagomedov wants. When it hits the canvas, Nurmagomedov's takedown defense and top control shift things his way. The switch stance gives Bautista angle changes to work around the orthodox look.

Almeida's push to get this to the mat meets Volkov's height and the reach it buys him on the feet. If Almeida closes distance and secures top position, his control and submission threat become the central danger. Volkov's task is keeping it standing, using length and volume to punish entries. Almeida's finishing ability means any extended ground time carries stoppage risk, while a striking-only fight plays into Volkov's pressure.

Rakic brings the tested résumé and physical frame, but Murzakanov owns the sharper finishing tools for this matchup. The fight likely turns on whether Rakic can use his length and level changes to drag it to the mat and grind from top, or whether Murzakanov keeps it standing long enough for his finishing threat to matter. Murzakanov needs to stay off the fence and off his back; Rakic wants to close the crossed-stance distance and make it a wrestling fight.

Salkilld's drive to get it to the mat and grind from top meets Haqparast's need to keep this a striking contest. On the feet, Salkilld's reach and distance control give him room to work at range against the southpaw, but Haqparast's rising volume is the tool that can make those exchanges messy. If Salkilld changes levels and lands his control time, the fight tilts his way, especially late, where his cardio and pace become relevant.

On the feet the fight favors Aliskerov's pressure and output, aided by 8 cm of reach and a southpaw look against Park's orthodox stance, which shifts the angles both must manage. Park's likeliest counter is to change levels and grind, but Aliskerov's takedown defense is built to keep it standing. If Park can't get it down, he's fighting where his opponent's finishing threat lives, though his recent durability gives him a route to drag this into deeper water.

Klein's takedown defense meets Rebecki's push to drag this to the mat, and that collision likely decides it. If Klein keeps it standing, his reach lets him fight long and turn Rebecki's forward pressure into range exchanges. If Rebecki closes distance and gets it down, his submission threat and top control become the central danger, where he's most likely to force a finish before the scorecards.

Walker brings the more tested résumé and the sharper matchup-specific tools, most notably a submission threat that has closed out his recent fights. The central question is whether Sutherland can keep exchanges standing and avoid the ground, where Walker's finishing has done its damage. Walker's few extra centimeters of reach and height give him room to work at distance and set up entries, but that space matters less if Sutherland pressures inside.

Standing favors Delgado's pressure, volume and reach; the mat is where Wood can flip the fight. If Wood times entries and chains takedowns, he neutralizes Delgado's length and finishing threat at distance. Delgado's job is to keep it upright and use his frame behind volume. With Delgado's ground control trending up, Wood may not find easy control even after landing takedowns, making the scramble battle central.

Early, Barnett's reach and orthodox-southpaw angles give him a window to work at range before Abdelwahab's defensive stand-up settles in. As the fight stretches, the picture tilts toward Abdelwahab: his cardio and chin become more relevant the longer it goes. If Barnett tries to change levels, Abdelwahab's takedown defense keeps this standing, which suits his pace and durability over the distance.

Maksum brings the deeper résumé and the longer frame, but Raposo owns the sharper matchup-specific defense. The southpaw's reach and higher output push Raposo to fight at range, exactly where his own distance management and stand-up defense matter most. If Maksum looks to grapple, Raposo's takedown defense meets an opponent who is hard to hold down anyway, so scrambles favor the return to the feet. The striking exchanges likely decide this.