← UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
Jailton Almeida vs Alexander Volkov
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10-25
67.5%
Model
57.3%
Market
1.68
Odds
+10.2
Edge (pp)
established · 9 UFC fightsestablished · 9 fights
Style Matchup
established · 17 UFC fightsestablished · 17 fights
STRIKING
P14
Striking Initiative
P97
P1
Volume
P93
P5
Striking Efficiency
P99
P1
Range Sniper
P89
P0
Kickboxing
P97
P22
Clinch Striking
P34
P12
Defensive Striking
P62
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P100
Wrestling
P42
P92
Pressure Wrestling
P7
P99
Top Control
P16
P97
Submission
P40
P95
Anti-Wrestling
P10
P66
Grappling Defense
P42
P98
Scrambler
P4
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P8
Power
P61
P97
Finisher
P65
P49
Damage Resistance
P82
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P99
Fast Starter
P94
P94
Pace
P43
P35
Late Fighter
P19
GLOBAL
P29
Versatility
P87
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
AlmeidaVolkov
2.87Landed / min5.27
0.88Absorbed / min3.19
67%Accuracy57%
44%Defense54%
0.00KD / 150.28
0.00KD abs / 150.14
Grappling / Wrestling
AlmeidaVolkov
6.58TD / 150.69
10.96TD att / 151.04
60%TD accuracy67%
67%TD defense74%
12:38Control / 151:23
2.44Sub att / 150.14
Targets
AlmeidaVolkov
Head92%|61%
Body6%|21%
Leg2%|18%
Position
AlmeidaVolkov
Distance9%|85%
Clinch4%|9%
Ground87%|6%
Ranking evolution Almeida Volkov
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Jailton Almeida
Jailton Almeida's game is built on grappling: dominant top control once he gets the fight to the mat, and a serious finishing threat from there. He also carries real one-shot fight-ending ability and manages distance a touch better on the feet. Riding a 2-fight streak, his last win came over the No. 7-ranked opponent.
Alexander Volkov
Alexander Volkov brings the volume and forward pressure in the striking exchanges, with a 10 cm height edge that lengthens his range. His striking output and ground control have both been trending upward recently. Deep 38-11 record across all organizations, with a recent win over the No. 4-ranked opponent.
Matchup Read
Almeida's push to get this to the mat meets Volkov's height and the reach it buys him on the feet. If Almeida closes distance and secures top position, his control and submission threat become the central danger. Volkov's task is keeping it standing, using length and volume to punish entries. Almeida's finishing ability means any extended ground time carries stoppage risk, while a striking-only fight plays into Volkov's pressure.
What to Watch
- Takedown entries: whether Almeida can shoot through Volkov's length and get past the range to change levels.
- Standing exchanges: if Volkov keeps distance with volume, his forward pressure dictates the pace.
- Ground time: once Almeida gets on top, watch how quickly he threatens the finish versus Volkov working back up.