← UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
Quillan Salkilld vs Nasrat Haqparast
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10-25
74.4%
Model
49.1%
Market
1.96
Odds
+25.3
Edge (pp)
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
Style Matchup
established · 14 UFC fightsestablished · 14 fights
STRIKING
P72
Striking Initiative
P89
P42
Volume
P91
P83
Striking Efficiency
P88
P55
Range Sniper
P97
P61
Kickboxing
P81
P70
Clinch Striking
P16
P31
Defensive Striking
P94
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P88
Wrestling
P6
P100
Pressure Wrestling
P43
P96
Top Control
P13
P30
Submission
P1
P36
Anti-Wrestling
P34
P72
Grappling Defense
P76
P37
Scrambler
P2
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P78
Power
P80
P43
Finisher
P29
P46
Damage Resistance
P87
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P92
Fast Starter
P35
P99
Pace
P23
P42
Late Fighter
P100
GLOBAL
P76
Versatility
P39
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
SalkilldHaqparast
5.55Landed / min6.40
2.68Absorbed / min6.01
65%Accuracy45%
48%Defense63%
0.98KD / 150.61
0.00KD abs / 150.09
Grappling / Wrestling
SalkilldHaqparast
7.83TD / 150.35
22.52TD att / 151.73
35%TD accuracy20%
100%TD defense85%
7:27Control / 150:36
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
SalkilldHaqparast
Head66%|75%
Body22%|22%
Leg12%|4%
Position
SalkilldHaqparast
Distance66%|90%
Clinch18%|6%
Ground16%|5%
Ranking evolution Salkilld Haqparast
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Quillan Salkilld
Quillan Salkilld rides a 9-fight win streak and is 2-0 in the UFC. His game combines sharp distance management and solid stand-up defense with a strong push to get the fight down and hold top position once there. He also owns a deep gas tank, holding pace late, and his defensive work has been improving. The reach, roughly 8 cm, adds to his range on the feet.
Nasrat Haqparast
Nasrat Haqparast is the far more tested name here, 10-4 in the UFC with all five of his last five UFC fights in the win column and an 18-5 overall mark. A southpaw whose striking output has been climbing lately, his most recent loss came against the No. 19-ranked opponent, with recent wins over lower-ranked opposition.
Matchup Read
Salkilld's drive to get it to the mat and grind from top meets Haqparast's need to keep this a striking contest. On the feet, Salkilld's reach and distance control give him room to work at range against the southpaw, but Haqparast's rising volume is the tool that can make those exchanges messy. If Salkilld changes levels and lands his control time, the fight tilts his way, especially late, where his cardio and pace become relevant.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Salkilld uses his length to manage range or Haqparast closes distance and raises the output.
- Grappling: how often Salkilld shoots and whether he can establish and hold top position once he gets there.
- Late rounds: whether Salkilld's pace holds up as the fight stretches deeper.
Key Uncertainty
With only two UFC fights to judge Salkilld on, his tools haven't yet been tested against the level of opposition Haqparast has repeatedly faced, which limits how confidently his edges translate up in competition.