AIBautista's rising volume and pressure meet Nurmagomedov's range control and stand-up defense head-on, and th…

64.2%

Model

78.9%

Market

1.22

Odds

-14.6

Edge (pp)

Umar Nurmagomedov

DEC

64.2%35.8%

Mario Bautista

HIGH-PACE GRINDER

GRAPPLING CONTROLLER · PRESSURE WRESTLER

Pace · Top Control · Wrestling Pressure

limited sample · 7 UFC fightslimited · 7 fights

Style Matchup

VOLUME PRESSURE STRIKER

HIGH-PACE GRINDER

Volume · Initiative

established · 12 UFC fightsestablished · 12 fights

STRIKING

P62

Striking Initiative

P94

P35

Volume

P87

P69

Striking Efficiency

P85

P27

Range Sniper

P64

P40

Kickboxing

P84

P26

Clinch Striking

P68

P64

Defensive Striking

P53

GRAPPLING / WRESTLING

P88

Wrestling

P58

P93

Pressure Wrestling

P73

P95

Top Control

P69

P68

Submission

P74

P51

Anti-Wrestling

P73

P87

Grappling Defense

P68

P32

Scrambler

P50

DAMAGE / FINISHING

P12

Power

P17

P19

Finisher

P25

P64

Damage Resistance

P67

FIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill

P89

Fast Starter

P96

P94

Pace

P91

P72

Late Fighter

P94

GLOBAL

P97

Versatility

P90

Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.

Striking

NurmagomedovBautista

4.38Landed / min6.13

2.15Absorbed / min4.45

57%Accuracy49%

61%Defense56%

0.16KD / 150.13

0.16KD abs / 150.26

Grappling / Wrestling

NurmagomedovBautista

3.26TD / 151.67

8.23TD att / 155.02

40%TD accuracy33%

79%TD defense68%

5:12Control / 153:26

0.31Sub att / 150.77

Targets

Position

Ranking evolution Nurmagomedov Bautista

AI Matchup Analysis

Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.

Umar Nurmagomedov

Umar Nurmagomedov carries an 18-1 record with a 6-1 UFC run, having beaten the No. 3-ranked opponent and dropping his only loss to the No. 1. He manages range well, keeps his stand-up defense tight, defends takedowns, and controls from top when the fight hits the mat. He also holds up well absorbing shots.

Mario Bautista

Mario Bautista rides an eight-fight win streak, 5-for-5 in his last five UFC outings and 10-2 overall in the promotion, with his most recent win over the No. 5-ranked opponent. His striking volume has been climbing, and he brings steady output and forward pressure. His recent form shows no dip in level.

Matchup Read

Bautista's rising volume and pressure meet Nurmagomedov's range control and stand-up defense head-on, and that exchange sets the standing tone. If Bautista can crowd him and keep output high, he narrows the space Nurmagomedov wants. When it hits the canvas, Nurmagomedov's takedown defense and top control shift things his way. The switch stance gives Bautista angle changes to work around the orthodox look.

What to Watch

Early striking: whether Bautista's forward pressure closes the range or Nurmagomedov keeps him at the end of his shots.
Grappling: whether the fight stays standing or Nurmagomedov gets his top position and control time.
Stance: how Bautista uses his switch-stance angles against the orthodox target.

Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista